Midday Wave #115 Bearish

Midday Wave #115: Breadth Collapse: Market Flips Bearish Into the Close – Wednesday 9/23/2026

September 23, 2026 3:49

Tickers Mentioned

PLTR PTIR TRT TSM ADI ALAB DVN BBIO ONON AZO

Episode Summary

Breadth deteriorated sharply intraday, flipping the regime from Cautious to Bearish as the 20SMA breadth read collapsed 56 points. With leadership narrowing almost entirely to semiconductors, the analyst lays out why traders should size down, demand volume confirmation on breakouts, and watch key ADI and TSM levels into the close.

Key Takeaways

40SMA breadth falls to 22.42%, 20SMA collapses to 61%
Bear 4% surges to 296 versus just 51 bulls
Semiconductors dominate 20% Study institutional momentum
TRT best-supported continuation with RVOL 1.1
Defensive tape favors ABC and controlled risk taking

Midday Situation Check

Bearish regime — 40SMA breadth at 22.42% (down from 24.43% yesterday, -2.0pp), 20SMA collapsing to 61% (from 117%, -56pp). Sentiment 4% flipped to Bearish; 40SMA sentiment stays Neutral.

Market Recap — Session So Far

A sharp breadth washout underway even as pockets of Tech and semis hold firm — participation is narrowing fast into midday.

Index levels unavailable — SPY, QQQ, and IWM price/technical data all show as (data unavailable), so no specific index levels or SMA references can be cited today.
Breadth turned defensive: Bull 4% cratered to 51 vs Bear 4% at 296 (yesterday was 280 bulls / 160 bears) — a clear intraday shift into distribution.
Longer-horizon still split: Bull 20% at 61 vs Bear 20% at 14, but 9-month Bull 9 / Bear 29 confirms the underlying trend remains fragile.

Momentum Watch — Breakout Continuation & SIP

PTIR $22.06 (+6.9%, RVOL 0.8) leads the Continuation scan, with PLTU $58.95 (+6.8%, RVOL 0.6) and PLTR $191.24 (+3.4%, RVOL 0.6) extending the Palantir complex — though low RVOL flags thin conviction.
SIP entries: DVN $46.94 (sentiment +2, Guidance/activist push, ENERGY) and BBIO $69.23 (+3.48% from open, MEDICAL, superior efficacy data) are the standout bullish tape items.
Fading: IONZ $21.70 (-10.5%, RVOL 0.0) and CHYM $28.62 (-5.58% from open, sentiment -2) show failed follow-through — respect the sellers.

Strategy Check — Continuation, SIP & 20% Study

Continuation holding: TRT $11.79 (+4.9%, RVOL 1.1) is the cleanest — the only top-10 name pairing a real move with above-average relative volume; MYGN $4.20 (+4.6%, RVOL 0.3) lacks the volume to trust.
SIP movers: ONON $29.40 (analyst PT raise, RVOL 5.07) but change-from-open is -2.33% — gap-and-fade risk. AZO $2,890.08 flagged as bearish on multiple PT cuts (RVOL 2.36).
20% Study = a CHIPS story: TSM $451.89 and ALAB $363.46 sit at_supply (institutional momentum confirmation but overhead resistance), while ADI $390.37 and MTSI $279.69 rest at_demand — semis are where the fund-driven bid persists despite weak overall breadth.

Sector Read

Technology (RSPT 0.88, 95th percentile, rising) remains the relative leader despite a slight -0.11 daily fade — the only sector printing strong percentile rank.
Financials (RSPF -1.86, 0th percentile, falling) and Consumer Discretionary (RSPD -2.18, 2nd percentile) are the weakest — avoid fresh longs here.
Energy (RSPG -0.02, +1.38 daily) perked up intraday, aided by the DVN activist headline — worth watching for a rotation flag.

Quick Takes & Wrap-Up

TRT — $11.79 with RVOL 1.1 is the best-supported continuation; watch whether it holds the +4.9% level into the afternoon or slips as breadth deteriorates.
ADI — $390.37 sitting at_demand (support ~$371–390, supply ~$390–397); a reclaim of supply confirms semi strength, a break of demand invites downside.
TSM — $451.89 pressing at_supply near $455–457; needs volume to clear or expect a fade back toward the intraday range.
Bias: Defensive/bearish for the rest of the session — with Bear 4% at 296 and 20SMA breadth cut in half, this is an ABC (Always Be in Control) and CRT (Controlled Risk Taking) tape. Size down, favor semis showing fund support, and let weak-volume breakouts prove themselves before chasing.

Welcome to Wave Rider midday wave your mid session market intelligence. Let's dive in breath. Just got cut in half since the open are we in a different market than we started the day in honestly. Yeah, we are okay, so walk me through it morning was cautious, neutralish. And now it's flipped bearish. The 40 SMA breath is sitting at 22.42% down from 24.43% yesterday. That's only two points though. On the 40 it is, but the 20 SMA that collapsed to 61% from 117% in today. Wait, really? 56 points? 56 points. That's a fast loss of participation. Yeah, and sentiment. sentiment. 4% flipped bearish. The slower 40 SMA read is still neutral, so there's a pacing lag with flagging. Right, the fast tape moves before the slow and catches up. Exactly. And look at the bull bear split. Bull 4% at 51. Bear 4% at 296. Oh wow. Whoa, what was that yesterday? 288 bulls 160 bears, so it's a complete reversal into distribution. Like the tide just went out. It did, but there's one tide pool still full technology. Right, text holding RSPT.88 95th percentile. The only sector with a strong rank. Meanwhile, financials are at the 0th percentile consumer discretionary at the second. So basically, the leadership is really narrow. Razor narrow. Yeah, okay, with participation narrowing that fast. Where's it actually showing up on the tape right now? So the continuation breakouts are mostly thin. PLTU is up 6.8% but relative volumes only 0.6. No conviction. None. PLTR up 3.4% again, RVAL 0.6. MYGN up 4.6% on 0.3. Yeah, like a car revving and neutral. That's exactly it. Looks fast. Isn't moving. Anything with real volume behind it. One name, TYRT up 4.9% at $11.79, RVAL 1.1. So that's the only top 10 pairing price with. Price with volume? Yeah, the only one. That's your continuation tell. Right. Okay, what about stocks and play? Two genuine bullish items. DVN on an activist in guidance push and BBIO up 3.48% from the open on efficacy data. Both backed by a catalyst. Both real, but watch ONON. RVAL 5.07. Huge. That's massive volume. But it's fading down 2.33% from the open. Oh, so gap and fade. Gap and fade risk. Yeah, lots of activity, but people are leaving not arriving. I mean a crowded exit door. Perfect way to put it. Oh, man. And the 20% study. Where's the institutional support? Support. It's almost entirely in chips. TSM and ALAB are at supply pressing resistance. ADI and MTSI or a demand holding support. So the one room with the lights still on. Semis are it. Everything else is going bark. Yeah, totally. Okay, so participation's narrowing into one pocket. How does that change the plan for the rest of the set? Session? Look simple. Bias is defensive bearish. This is an ABC and CRT tape. Size down. Don't chase weak volume breakouts. Play not to lose. Exactly. Favour the semis showing fun support and require volume confirmation before you trust any new breakout? Give me the levels. ADI's demand zone 371 to 390. TSM supply zone, 455 to 457. And TYRT holding that 4.9% is your continuation tell. Right, right. And financials consumer discretionary. That's all for today's episode of Wave Rider Midday Wave. Your mid-session market intelligence. See you next time.

Chapters

Regime Update

Signal Status

Afternoon Adjustment

Next Day Prep #328 Bearish

Try WaveFinder

Midday Situation Check

Market Recap — Session So Far

Momentum Watch — Breakout Continuation & SIP

Strategy Check — Continuation, SIP & 20% Study

Sector Read

Quick Takes & Wrap-Up

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