Midday Market

Midday Wave #136: Thin Tape: Breadth Diverges as Indices Hold Gains – Wednesday 10/21/2026

Episode 1365:20

0:005:20

Episode summary

Indices sit in the green, but the bull count collapsed from 367 to 185 as short-term breadth fades while long-term breadth firms up. The desk ranks SPY, QQQ, and IWM on structural strength, flags defensive sectors as the real leadership, and lays out the exact levels — QQQ’s SMA50, SPY’s confluence, IWM’s SMA20 — that...

Chapter by chapter

Breadth Splits Under a Green Tape

Bull count drops from 367 to 185 as short-term breadth weakens even as long-term breadth improves, shifting the stance to cautiously neutral.

Ranking SPY, QQQ, and IWM

SPY holds structural support, QQQ leads on price without confirmation, IWM lags badly, and sector strength favors defensive names over Tech.

The Levels That Decide the Close

QQQ's SMA50, SPY's SMA20/50 confluence, and IWM reclaiming its SMA20 are identified as the key triggers for the rest of the session.

Key points

  • Bull count collapsed from 367 to 185 while long-term breadth (40SMA) improved and short-term breadth (20SMA) weakened, prompting a shift to cautiously neutral.
  • SPY is the most structurally sound index, holding above both its SMA20 and SMA50, while QQQ leads on price but trades below its SMA20 with weak RSI.
  • IWM is the clearest red flag, trading under both its SMA20 and SMA50, confirming small caps aren't participating in the advance.
  • Health Care and Staples show the strongest relative strength while Tech lags, consistent with light-volume, defensive-led continuation names.
  • Key levels to watch into the close: QQQ's SMA50 at $726.75, SPY's $770.83–$768.32 confluence, and IWM reclaiming $277.76.

Ticker charts

SPY

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SPY in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 21, 2026.

QQQ

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open QQQ in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 21, 2026.

IWM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open IWM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 21, 2026.

TMO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TMO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 21, 2026.

AYI

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AYI in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 21, 2026.

MTD

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MTD in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 21, 2026.

WST

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open WST in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 21, 2026.

AAL

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AAL in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 21, 2026.

DOCN

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open DOCN in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 21, 2026.

ZS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ZS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 21, 2026.

LLY

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LLY in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 21, 2026.

REGN

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open REGN in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 21, 2026.

AZO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AZO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 21, 2026.

FICO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FICO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 21, 2026.

FROG

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FROG in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 21, 2026.

CRWD

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CRWD in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 21, 2026.

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