Midday Market

Midday Wave #120: Cracks Beneath the Rally: Breadth Warns as Sentiment Stays Bullish – Wednesday 9/30/2026

Episode 1204:56

0:004:56

Episode summary

Sentiment reads Bullish, but a three-point drop in 20SMA breadth signals thinning short-term participation beneath the surface. With index data unavailable, the desk leans on sector rotation and single names — spotlighting Technology’s dominance, a chip-sector divergence between FORM and CBRS, and KOD’s standout volume as the cleanest breakout setup of the session.

Chapter by chapter

Bullish Sentiment Meets Cracking Breadth

Sentiment reads Bullish while 20SMA breadth drops three points, exposing thinning short-term participation despite falling bear counts.

Index Data Blackout

SPY, QQQ, and IWM data are unavailable at midday, forcing reliance on breadth and single-name signals.

Tech Leads, Staples Lag

Technology sits at the 98th percentile while Financials, Energy, and Staples lag near the bottom.

Continuation Without Confirmation

USDE and software names like VEEV and RSKD show price continuation but lack volume confirmation.

Chips Split: FORM vs CBRS

FORM breaks out on an analyst initiation while CBRS sells off on an OpenAI-Nvidia hardware headline, splitting the chip sector.

KOD Stands Alone

KOD is the lone 20% Study standout with 4.64 RVOL and a 16.92 ATR multiple, closing in on its 52-week high.

Selective High-Conviction Setups

The desk shifts from broad continuation exposure to selective, high-conviction trades in Tech and software.

Key Levels: CDNS and KOD

CDNS's 336.22–342.375 supply zone and KOD's approach to its 52-week high are flagged as the session's decisive levels.

Key points

  • Bullish sentiment is masking deteriorating internals — 20SMA breadth fell three points, the fastest-moving warning signal of the day.
  • Index-level data (SPY, QQQ, IWM) was unavailable at midday, pushing the desk to trade off breadth and single names.
  • Technology dominates sector rotation at the 98th percentile while Financials, Energy, and Staples sit near the bottom.
  • KOD is the standout 20% Study name with 4.64 RVOL and a 16.92 ATR multiple, nearing its 52-week high.
  • Afternoon strategy shifts from broad continuation trades to selective, high-conviction setups, with CDNS's supply zone and KOD's breakout as key levels to watch.

Ticker charts

SPY

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SPY in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 30, 2026.

QQQ

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open QQQ in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 30, 2026.

IWM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open IWM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 30, 2026.

USDE

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open USDE in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 30, 2026.

SNPS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SNPS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 30, 2026.

PLTR

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open PLTR in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 30, 2026.

VEEV

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open VEEV in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 30, 2026.

RSKD

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open RSKD in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 30, 2026.

FORM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FORM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 30, 2026.

CBRS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CBRS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 30, 2026.

KOD

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open KOD in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 30, 2026.

CDNS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CDNS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 30, 2026.

ONTO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ONTO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 30, 2026.

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