Midday Market

Midday Wave #119: Breadth Cracks, Indexes Go Dark: Trading the Fog – Tuesday 9/29/2026

Episode 1195:13

0:005:13

Episode summary

Breadth is collapsing fast even as bear counts ease, and with SPY, QQQ, and IWM dark, traders are flying on secondary gauges alone. The team digs into thin continuation names, a rare high-conviction breakout in NAUT, and a bullish-bearish divergence in BE, then lays out the afternoon discipline plan.

Chapter by chapter

Breadth Cliff Dive

20SMA and 40SMA breadth plunge together even as the bear count falls, exposing a misleading relief signal.

Index Blackout

SPY, QQQ, and IWM data are dark, forcing traders to rely entirely on breadth and secondary scans.

Semis, the Lone Lit Room

RSPT's 95th percentile reading marks technology and semiconductors as the only leadership pocket standing.

Thin Continuation Names

QMCO, MRAM, AMAT, and FORM post gains but on sub-1.0 RVOL, signaling weak real participation.

NAUT and IDT Show Real Volume

NAUT's 3.98 RVOL breakout and IDT's earnings-driven move stand out as the day's genuine conviction plays.

BE's Bullish-Bearish Divergence

A raised price target on BE clashes with a 6.45% intraday fade, flagging a classic conviction gap.

CDNS and FIX Supply-Demand Levels

The 20% Study shows CDNS pinned at supply and FIX holding demand, both key institutional levels to track.

Sizing Down for the Afternoon

With breadth flushing and indexes dark, the plan shifts to smaller size and strict ABC/CRT discipline.

Key Levels Into the Close

CDNS's $327-$332 reclaim and BE's fade are the two setups to watch before volume decides the next move.

Key points

  • 20SMA breadth fell 9 points intraday (21% to 12%) while the bear count dropped — a misleading divergence, not genuine relief.
  • With SPY, QQQ, and IWM data dark, traders must navigate purely on breadth and secondary scans today.
  • Technology/semis (RSPT at 95th percentile) is the only leadership pocket; most continuation names are rising on thin, sub-1.0 RVOL.
  • NAUT (RVOL 3.98) and IDT (earnings beat) are the only names with real volume conviction; BE shows a bullish target vs. bearish tape divergence.
  • Afternoon plan: size down, apply ABC/CRT discipline, and watch CDNS's $327-$332 reclaim as the key unlock level.

Ticker charts

SPY

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SPY in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

QQQ

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open QQQ in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

IWM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open IWM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

RSPT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open RSPT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

QMCO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open QMCO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

MRAM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MRAM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

AMAT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AMAT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

FORM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FORM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

NAUT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NAUT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

IDT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open IDT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

BE

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open BE in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

PIPR

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open PIPR in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

CDNS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CDNS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

FIX

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FIX in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

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