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Breadth deteriorated sharply intraday, flipping the regime from Cautious to Bearish as the 20SMA breadth read collapsed 56 points. With leadership narrowing almost entirely to semiconductors, the analyst lays out why traders should size down, demand volume confirmation on breakouts, and watch key ADI and TSM levels into the close.
Chapter by chapter
Breadth Collapse and Regime Flip
40SMA and 20SMA breadth readings deteriorate sharply, flipping sentiment from Cautious to Bearish and reversing the Bull-Bear split into distribution.
Technology Alone Holds Strength
Technology remains the lone sector with a strong RS rank while Financials and Consumer Discretionary sit near the bottom of the percentile rankings.
Thin Breakouts Lack Volume
Top continuation names like PLTU, PLTR, and MYGN post gains on weak relative volume, with TRT standing out as the only price-volume pairing.
Stocks in Play: Catalysts and Fade Risk
DVN and BBIO offer genuine catalyst-backed setups, while ONON shows a high-RVOL gap-and-fade warning sign.
Semis Hold the Institutional Support
The 20% Study shows institutional support concentrated in chips, with TSM and ALAB at supply and ADI and MTSI at demand.
Defensive Bias and Key Levels
The bias shifts to Defensive, Bearish with a plan to size down, require volume confirmation, and track ADI's demand zone and TSM's supply zone.
Session Wrap and Watch List
Recap of the bearish regime flip and a reminder to reassess if TRT or ADI break their levels into the close.
Key points
Breadth flipped from Cautious to Bearish intraday, with the 20SMA collapsing 56 points and the Bull-Bear split reversing into heavy distribution.
Technology is the only sector with a strong RS rank (95th percentile); Financials and Consumer Discretionary are near the bottom and should be avoided for new longs.
Most continuation breakouts (PLTU, PLTR, MYGN) lack real volume support — only TRT pairs price gains with RVOL above 1.0.
Institutional support is concentrated almost entirely in semiconductors, with ADI/MTSI at demand and TSM/ALAB at supply.
Session bias is now Defensive, Bearish — size down, demand volume confirmation on breakouts, and watch ADI's $371-$390 demand zone and TSM's $455-$457 supply zone.
See PLTU in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)
Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open PLTU in WaveFinder.
See PLTR in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open PLTR in WaveFinder.
See MYGN in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MYGN in WaveFinder.
See TRT in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TRT in WaveFinder.
See DVN in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open DVN in WaveFinder.
See BBIO in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open BBIO in WaveFinder.
See ONON in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ONON in WaveFinder.
See TSM in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TSM in WaveFinder.
See ALAB in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ALAB in WaveFinder.
See ADI in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)
Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ADI in WaveFinder.
See MTSI in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MTSI in WaveFinder.