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Breadth indicators cave across both the 20 and 40-day timeframes as sentiment flips bearish, confirming a regime shift rather than a temporary flush. Energy emerges as the lone rotation target, though most gains lack real volume, while leaders like PANW and META hit critical supply/demand levels that will decide the afternoon session.
Chapter by chapter
Breadth Contraction Confirmed
40SMA and 20SMA breadth both drop sharply as sentiment flips bearish, confirming a regime shift with index data dark and energy the only green sector.
4% Counts Cool on Both Sides
Bull and Bear 4% counts both ease, but the skew stays heavily negative despite the cooling.
Energy Moves Lack Real Volume
Energy leaders like CVI and SSL post solid gains, but most run on RVOL under one — real participation shows only in FTEK, CNH, and thin-volume NWGL.
Leaders Stall at Supply, Catalysts Mixed
Bullish and bearish catalysts split defensively, while ZS, PANW, and HCA stall at supply as META and FICO hold at demand.
Trading Plan Into the Close
Bearish bias favors ABC and FFM with capped risk, energy-only longs, and PANW's supply band against META's demand zone as the key levels to watch.
Key points
40SMA breadth fell from 35.1 to 28.51 and 20SMA breadth dropped from 21 to 17, confirming broad contraction rather than a bounce setup
Sentiment 40SMA flipped from Neutral to Bearish, confirming a regime shift alongside the breadth deterioration
Energy is the only sector rotating in, but most gains (CVI, SSL, USO, MPC) show RVOL under 1 — real volume only in FTEK and CNH
Leaders ZS, PANW, and HCA are stalling at supply while META and FICO hold at demand, signaling a key divergence beneath weakening breadth
Afternoon bias stays bearish with risk capped at 2.5%; PANW's 381.78-387.32 supply band and META's 642-645 demand zone are the levels to watch into the close
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CVI in WaveFinder.
See SSL in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SSL in WaveFinder.
See USO in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open USO in WaveFinder.
See MPC in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MPC in WaveFinder.
See FTEK in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See CNH in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CNH in WaveFinder.
See NWGL in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See FICO in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.
ABC
Chart unavailable
SMA
No daily price history for ABC through Sep 15, 2026.
FFM
Chart unavailable
SMA
No daily price history for FFM through Sep 15, 2026.
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