Midday Market

Midday Wave #109: Breadth Breaks Down: Regime Shift Confirmed – Tuesday 9/15/2026

Episode 1094:39

0:004:39

Episode summary

Breadth indicators cave across both the 20 and 40-day timeframes as sentiment flips bearish, confirming a regime shift rather than a temporary flush. Energy emerges as the lone rotation target, though most gains lack real volume, while leaders like PANW and META hit critical supply/demand levels that will decide the afternoon session.

Chapter by chapter

Breadth Contraction Confirmed

40SMA and 20SMA breadth both drop sharply as sentiment flips bearish, confirming a regime shift with index data dark and energy the only green sector.

4% Counts Cool on Both Sides

Bull and Bear 4% counts both ease, but the skew stays heavily negative despite the cooling.

Energy Moves Lack Real Volume

Energy leaders like CVI and SSL post solid gains, but most run on RVOL under one — real participation shows only in FTEK, CNH, and thin-volume NWGL.

Leaders Stall at Supply, Catalysts Mixed

Bullish and bearish catalysts split defensively, while ZS, PANW, and HCA stall at supply as META and FICO hold at demand.

Trading Plan Into the Close

Bearish bias favors ABC and FFM with capped risk, energy-only longs, and PANW's supply band against META's demand zone as the key levels to watch.

Key points

  • 40SMA breadth fell from 35.1 to 28.51 and 20SMA breadth dropped from 21 to 17, confirming broad contraction rather than a bounce setup
  • Sentiment 40SMA flipped from Neutral to Bearish, confirming a regime shift alongside the breadth deterioration
  • Energy is the only sector rotating in, but most gains (CVI, SSL, USO, MPC) show RVOL under 1 — real volume only in FTEK and CNH
  • Leaders ZS, PANW, and HCA are stalling at supply while META and FICO hold at demand, signaling a key divergence beneath weakening breadth
  • Afternoon bias stays bearish with risk capped at 2.5%; PANW's 381.78-387.32 supply band and META's 642-645 demand zone are the levels to watch into the close

Ticker charts

CVI

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CVI in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

SSL

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SSL in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

USO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open USO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

MPC

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MPC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

FTEK

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FTEK in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

CNH

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CNH in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

NWGL

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NWGL in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

NYT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NYT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

RMD

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open RMD in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

SYY

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SYY in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

ASND

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ASND in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

ZS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ZS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

PANW

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open PANW in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

HCA

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open HCA in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

META

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open META in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

FICO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FICO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

ABC

Chart unavailable

No daily price history for ABC through Sep 15, 2026.

FFM

Chart unavailable

No daily price history for FFM through Sep 15, 2026.

SPY

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SPY in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

QQQ

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open QQQ in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 15, 2026.

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