Midday Market — 2026-02-20

Welcome to Waverider Midday Market, your mid-session momentum check. Let's dive in. The Supreme Court just struck down global tariffs and the market is ripping. DIA leading, indexes bouncing hard. Sounds like a bull party, right? Here's the catch. Only 38% of stocks are above their 20-day moving average. So who exactly is invited to this party? I'm your host and this is Waverider Midday Market. Let's find out. I mean, that 38% number is wild when you think about it. Right? On a day like this, you'd expect... Way more participation. And honestly, the volume story makes it even weirder. Our vol across major ETFs is running 0.6 to 0.7 times average. Wait, so institutions are basically... Watching, not participating, exactly. Right, right. Yeah, that tracks. So what are you seeing in the breadth numbers? So basically bull 4% at 116 versus bear 4% at 90. That's basically a tug-of-war signal. Short-term strength against longer-term structural caution. So it's basically a coin flip on sentiment right now. Mm-hmm. Pretty much. I mean, 40 SMA positioning is sitting at 40% bearish. This feels more like short covering and retail than institutional re-risking. It's like a stadium doing the wave. looks great on camera, but only one section is actually standing up. Yeah, exactly. And look, if the broad market is running on fumes, the question becomes where is the real money moving? Because there are names out there absolutely working today. Yeah, walk me through it. Right. So FET is up 7 on an earnings gap and we get into the exact trade setup in a minute but first the name that really got my attention Yeah Mm AU up 5 to And here's what makes it different. Our vol is only 0.52. Oh, wow. So this isn't retail chasing. Exactly. Not even close. Look, when you see who owns it, 1,434 institutional funds with a 12.3% ownership increase, I mean, that's not a coincidence. That's a support cushion money can't fake. You know what's interesting? Every name you're describing has that same fingerprint. Low volume, controlled move, institutional accumulation happening quietly. Right, right. Totally. ADI is grinding 2.7% higher to $354.51 despite technology sector weakness at negative 1.24%. Wait, tech is down over a percent and ADI is up almost three? That's not… Nothing. That's the definition of relative strength. Strong swimmer going upstream. And aerospace is doing the same thing. HWM up 2.5 percent, FTAI up 1.3 percent, both holding morning breakouts on low relative volume. Same institutional fingerprint, different sector. All right. FET is the name with the cleanest trade setup right now. Walk me through the levels. Sure. Entry at $57.10, stop at $54.43 for 4.7% risk using a 2.67 ATR stop. Measured move target of to over 3 to 5 sessions Okay but we just said this is a low rally with thin breath What the risk if this fades Yeah, here's the thing. That's exactly why the stop is there. $54.43 and we're out. No arguing with it. A gap-and-go in a low-volume rally environment carries real fade risk, and we know that. If it holds $56.50 yesterday's high, the setup is confirmed. If it doesn't, we're done. And the sector tailwind is real here? Mm-hmm. I mean, yes, but I want to be careful about leaning too hard on that. Energy at the 97th percentile is great until it isn't, and we've seen sector leaders roll fast. The stop at 54.43 exists for a reason. You ride the wave until it tells you to get off, not before. Now let's talk about the trade you absolutely should not be in today. Right. TRNR, down 26% after a reverse split with 428 times relative volume. Wait, 428 times? That's not a typo. Oh man. I mean, not a typo. And for people who don't know what a reverse split means, fewer shares at a higher price, often done by companies in distress to avoid delisting. So that massive volume? It's not opportunity, it's a warning. Like a shiny object in a dark alley. Yeah, totally. Exactly. And honestly, that's the trap today. Tech, comm services, healthcare, they're all bouncing a little, right? But they're sitting below the 20th percentile. That's not a reversal, that's just noise. Dead cat bounce territory. Right Yeah exactly Don confuse a one pop for a trend change We heading into the afternoon session and there are specific price levels you need on your radar right now Here the line in the sand ADI. $354.50 is the line. Hold above keeps the institutional continuation pattern alive. Break below signals profit-taking into the close. FET? Mm-hmm. $5.60 is the confirmation level. Sustained trade above validates the gap and go with $62 to $63 as the target. And AU? Yeah. $113 psychological support is key. Material sector rotation is vulnerable if gold fades, but $104.34 institutional funds provide a real cushion. Overall bias into the close? You know what? Cautiously bullish. The tariff ruling removes a major overhang, but the market needs broader participation and real volume to turn this into a sustainable move. The catalyst is real. The conviction isn't there yet. So we trade the names that are working, not the story we wish were true. Energy and financials, specific levels, defined risk. That's the edge today. Energy and financials over index chasing. That's exactly where the edge lives. Mark your afternoon levels right now. FET at $5.60. ADI at $354.50. AU at $113. We've got a green light at the intersection, but the next three lights down the road are still red. Proceed. Don't floor it. Yep. Trade what you see. Not what you hope. Follow WaveRider so you don't miss the closing bell. Breakdown. That's all for today's episode of WaveRider Midday Market, your mid-session momentum check. See you next time.