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Market Awareness

Situation Awareness — 2026-11-02

By WaveRider AI2 min read

Situation Awareness: Cautious. Futures point to a relief rebound after last Friday’s semiconductor rout — S&P futures +24 to 7,638, Nasdaq futures +162 to 28,670, Dow +185 to 52,103 — but the tape remains structurally damaged, with SPY at $755.72 pinned below its SMA20 ($769.51) and SMA50 ($767.29), and QQQ at $690.49 sitting well under its SMA20/SMA50 near $724 with RSI at a washed-out 34.9. Trade mode: selective and defensive — fade the open strength until breadth confirms, lean on non-tech leadership. Today’s context is dominated by crude breaking below $100 on Iran diplomacy hopes, a heavy ISM/JOLTS data slate at 10:00 ET, and the midterm election landing tomorrow with Democrats polling ahead for both chambers. Regime context — 49.72% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows just 109 bulls vs. 741 bears. The 5-day trend shows last week’s grind lower culminating in Friday’s tech capitulation, with today’s futures marking the first attempt at recovery — an early turn, not yet a confirmed one.

SIP: TWST CAMP MBOT PBK

  • What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH is the only live book with 13 signals (energy-heavy — CHRD, IMO, FANG); Reversal shows 5 signals, all breakdowns (MSTR, ON, SMCI, HPE, UUUU). Delayed 9M is empty — momentum breadth is dry.
  • Leading sectors: market closed — no live sector/theme performance feed; ATR volatility data unavailable. Fallback read from Friday’s tape: health care, materials, utilities and industrials held up while communication services (-8.5% wk) and tech (-1.8% wk) led the decline.
  • Key event: midterm elections tomorrow (Nov 3) — polls favor a Democratic sweep; tariff-revocation risk and “Mr. Veto” headlines are live.
  • Market read: Friday’s PHLX Semi Index -7.3% close below its 200-day flagged capitulation; the 56%→90% collapse in stocks above 20-SMA (-34pp) confirms the damage. Today is a bounce in an oversold, nervous market — respect it, don’t chase it.
  • DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — stand down on that book.
  • SIPS: CHRD ($156.99, +2.2%), FANG ($212.08, +2.7%), SEI ($70.70, +2.3%) — energy and machinery continuation setups.