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Market Awareness

Situation Awareness — 2026-10-28

By WaveRider AI2 min read

Situation Awareness: Cautious, but tilting constructive into event risk. The tape is being driven by a two-day AI rebound — SK Hynix’s blowout (SKHY +8.08% premarket) lit up Asian tech, Kospi ripped +6.6%, and S&P futures sit +20 with Nasdaq futures +119 into the open. But the whole session hinges on the 2:00 PM ET FOMC decision (90.6% odds of a hold at 3.75-4.00%) and a wave of mega-cap earnings after the close. SPY $769.66 sits just under its SMA20 ($770.76) and above SMA50 ($767.57) with RSI 51.1 — dead center of its $758.68-$781.62 range. QQQ $721.25 remains below its SMA20 ($732.26) and SMA50 ($725.34), RSI 47.2 — tech is rebounding but still repairing. Trade mode: selective and patient — don’t chase ahead of the Fed and mega-cap prints; let the catalyst clear. Regime context — 46.9% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 526 bulls vs. 121 bears. The 5-day trend turned up sharply, with the bull/bear count flipping from 154/242 to 526/121, confirming an early breadth recovery off last week’s washout.

SIP: MBOT CAMP FRGT AVBP

  • What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH scan is rich with 21 signals — healthy breadth. Reversal scan thin at 4 (PYPL, CPRT, GIS, COMP). No Delayed 9M signals firing.
  • Leading sectors: live trending/ATR data unavailable (market closed). Signal-flow read: MEDICAL dominates the continuation scan (ARGX, ASND, ONC, VSTM, NRIX), with METALS (NUE), RETAIL (AMZN), and BUILDING (AGX) also firing.
  • Key event: October FOMC decision at 2:00 PM ET plus the statement and the Fed Chair press conference — tone, not the rate, is the trade.
  • Market read: yesterday’s +0.6% S&P / +1.2% Nasdaq advance reclaimed the 50-day; AI infrastructure led. Momentum is back, but participation was mixed (equal-weight +0.1%) — a narrow, mega-cap-driven rally that still needs confirmation.
  • DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M setups today — stand down on that bucket.
  • SIPS: NUE (+5.2%, RVOL 2.0), AGX (+3.5%), AMZN (+1.6%) from the continuation scan.