Situation Awareness: Correction. Narrow, rate-pressured tape as investors sit on their hands ahead of a data avalanche — August PCE, ADP, Q2 GDP third estimate, and Chicago PMI all cleared the 8:15–9:45 window, with Micron reporting after the close as the semiconductor tell. Futures are dead flat (S&P -1 @ 7,731, Nasdaq -45 @ 30,569, Dow -17 @ 51,684) after Tuesday’s mostly-lower, weak-breadth session that only recovered off the lows on dovish Williams commentary. SPY/QQQ/IWM cash prices and SMA levels are unavailable in today’s data, so lean on futures and yields for structure. Trade mode: selective and defensive — respect the breadth, wait for data to clear. The dominant force remains the Treasury market: 10-yr at 5.23%, 30-yr at 5.56%, and October hike odds have collapsed to 43.7% from 70.9% a week ago. Regime context — 19.27% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 5 bulls vs. 8 bears. The 5-day trend is choppy and negative under the surface, with the % above 20-SMA cratering to 12% from 18% even as the 40-SMA ticked up 1.5pp — a market with no broad participation.
SIP: NESR JELD CABO WW
- What’s working: virtually nothing on the momentum side — the Continuation/2LYNCH scan is empty and Delayed 9M is empty. Only the Reversal scan fired (2 signals: HPQ, IONQ), reflecting an oversold, mean-reversion environment.
- Leading sectors: live Trending Sector and Theme data unavailable (market closed) and Sector Volatility ATR came back empty. From the tape, semiconductors and AI-infrastructure are the only pockets of relative strength; energy and staples are the laggards.
- Key event: August PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred gauge, consensus +0.4%) is the single most consequential print of the session for the rate path.
- Market read: Tuesday closed modestly lower (S&P -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.1%, DJIA -0.3%) but breadth was ugly — only four sectors higher, Russell 2000 -0.4%. A dovish Williams save, not real buying, lifted the tape off lows. Fragile.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — scan is dry, consistent with the correction breadth.
- SIPS: no Continuation swing candidates today; the only setups are Reversal plays HPQ ($30.98) and IONQ ($44.19).