Situation Awareness: Cautious Bearish. The tape is being run by two forces moving in the wrong direction together — WTI crude above $97/bbl (+$1.61) and the 10-year yield pushing to 4.87-4.88%, extending a back-to-back losing streak into a third session. S&P 500 futures sit -7 at 7,637 and Nasdaq futures -155 at 29,294, though Dow futures buck the trend at +62 on defensive/energy tilt. Index technicals are data unavailable this morning, so lean on breadth and futures for structure. Trade mode: selective and defensive — let the 8:30 PPI print and the ECB decision clear before committing size, with tomorrow’s CPI the real fuse ahead of the Sep 15-16 FOMC. The unusual wrinkle: markets price a 62.2% chance of a rate HIKE, not a cut, so hot data cuts against equities. Regime context — 38.19% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA (down from 44.5%), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows just 91 bulls vs. 296 bears. The 5-day trend shows a consistent down sequence, confirming downward momentum even as the 20-SMA reading ticked up to 58%.
SIP: LOVE CULP CMPS NAUT
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH is the only rich scan with 9 signals (FICO, MDGL, HMY, ONC, META, FFIV, OKTA, HCA); Reversal shows a lone MNST flag. Software and Medical are carrying the leadership torch.
- Leading sectors: live trending data is offline (market closed) — from yesterday’s tape, Energy (+1.1%) stood alone in the green while Industrials (-1.5%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.4%), Utilities (-1.2%) lagged. Semis held up (SOX +0.4%).
- Key event: August PPI + jobless claims at 8:30 ET; ECB rate decision at 8:15 ET (hike expected); $22B 30-yr bond reopening at 13:00 ET.
- Market read: yesterday’s -0.5% S&P / -1.3% Russell finish was defensive and broad — 10 of 11 sectors red, small caps punished. That distribution profile argues for caution, not dip-buying, until rates cool.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals fired — watchlist dry today.
- SIPS: FICO, META, HCA lead the Continuation swing candidates.