Situation Awareness: Cautious. Crude is calling the shots — WTI is +$2.23 at $93.72, its highest since early June, after a weekend exchange of strikes between the U.S. and Iran, and that oil surge is dragging equity futures lower even as semis hold firm. The tape splits down the middle: S&P futures -15 at 7,707 and Dow futures -374 at 53,066, but Nasdaq futures buck the trend +41 at 29,606 on chip strength. Index cash prices and SMA levels are unavailable in today’s data, so lean on futures and breadth. Trade mode: selective and defensive — respect the oil-driven risk-off in cyclicals while chip momentum stays intact. This is a wait-and-see week ahead of Thursday PPI, Friday CPI, and the Sept 15-16 FOMC, where markets price ~60% odds of a 25bp rate HIKE. Regime context — 50.03% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 206 bulls vs. 104 bears. The 5-day trend firmed, with breadth above the 20-SMA jumping to 23% from 19% and the 40-SMA edging up to 50.03% from 49.05%, signaling a grinding, choppy recovery rather than clean momentum.
SIP: ASAN CURV TYRA BBCP
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH is the only rich scan with 11 signals, concentrated in memory/semis; Reversal fired just 1 (OXY). D9M is empty — no episodic pivots to chase.
- Leading sectors: market closed, no live trending or sector-ATR data available. Signal concentration points to COMPUTER (memory) and ELECTRNCS leadership from the continuation scan.
- Key event: U.S.-Iran strikes over the weekend pushed crude to a June high; Strait of Hormuz risk premium is the dominant macro force today.
- Market read: last week closed volatile-but-flat (S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.4%, DJIA -0.3%); Friday’s hot jobs report tilted rate odds hawkish. Expect the same tug-of-war — oil and yields vs. semis.
- DEP watchlist: no D9M signals today — default to continuation leaders SNDK, MU, WDC.
- SIPS: SNDK ($1,740, +11.9%), MU ($1,016.59, +6.1%), COHR ($281.86, +6.6%).