Situation Awareness: Cautious. The tape closed a volatile week essentially flat, but the character has shifted decisively hawkish after Friday’s blowout jobs report — the market is now pricing a Fed rate hike, not a cut, into the September 15-16 FOMC. U.S. equity index levels (SPY/QQQ/IWM) are unavailable in today’s data, so lean on breadth and rates for positioning. With markets shuttered for Labor Day, this is a week-ahead briefing: the entire tape hinges on August CPI (Sept 11) as the deciding vote for the FOMC. Trade mode: selective and watchful — resist chasing until CPI clears the runway. Regime context — 49.91% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 206 bulls vs. 104 bears. The 5-day trend turned up modestly, with breadth improving two straight sessions (40 SMA +1.0pp, 20 SMA +4.0pp), signaling early stabilization beneath a capped index.
SIP: BBCP CURV TYRA ASAN
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH is the only engine firing — 11 signals, clustered hard in memory/semis (SNDK +11.9%, MU +6.1%, COHR +6.6%, WDC +5.9%). Reversal scan thin at 1 (OXY). Delayed 9M dry.
- Leading sectors: market closed — no live sector/theme data. Signal clustering points to COMPUTER (memory/storage) as the clear leadership pocket; ELECTRNCS and MACHINE secondary.
- Key event: August payrolls shocked at +162K vs. 45K consensus with upward revisions — September hike odds jumped to ~58-60% from 49%.
- Market read: Friday’s rebound stalled as yields backed up; the underlying tape is two-speed — semis strong, software and rate-sensitives punished.
- DEP watchlist: No D9M signals today — defer to continuation names below.
- SIPS: SNDK, MU, WDC — memory-cycle continuation leaders with the strongest RVOL/momentum profile.