Situation Awareness: Cautious. Two forces are wrestling for control of the tape — crude oil pushing toward $93/bbl on escalating Strait of Hormuz hostilities against easing Treasury yields, with the 10-year back to 4.77% after touching 4.82% overnight. Futures are mixed and split: Dow futures +103 @ 53,224 lean cyclical/value while Nasdaq futures -76 @ 29,111 drag on chip weakness after Broadcom’s post-earnings fade. SPY/QQQ/IWM cash levels and SMA references are unavailable in today’s data, so we anchor on futures and breadth instead. Trade mode: selective and watchful — respect the oil headwind, buy strength that yields confirm, avoid crowded software. Today’s context is a fickle, rate-and-oil-driven market with a heavy economic slate (ISM Services, jobless claims) and mega-cap earnings digestion calling the shots. Regime context — 45.81% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 256 bulls vs. 89 bears. The 5-day trend turned decisively up, with the Bull 4% count flipping from 104 to 256 in a single session and breadth above the 40 SMA expanding +2.8pp — early recovery signaling, not confirmed strength.
SIP: EOSE IRD GPUS ADBT
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH is firing with 12 signals (decent breadth), led by steel and internet momentum; Reversal scan shows 6 names concentrated in chips and hardware. Delayed 9M is empty — no episodic-pivot follow-through today.
- Leading groups (live sector/theme feeds closed): Reversal-scan strength clusters in CHIPS (ALAB, KLAC) and BUSINESS SVC (HPE); Continuation strength in METALS (STLD +5.8%), INTERNET (RDDT +9.3%), RETAIL (CVNA +2.7%).
- Key event: Crude at/near $93 on Strait of Hormuz military escalation — the U.S. escorted 40 vessels carrying 18M barrels through the waterway and expects continued offensive strikes.
- Market read: Yesterday’s broad rebound (S&P +0.5%, Russell 2000 +1.2%) showed relief once oil and yields stabilized — but that relief is contingent on both staying contained, and oil is back on the offensive this morning.
- DEP watchlist: No Delayed 9M signals today — stand down on episodic pivots.
- SIPS: STLD, RDDT, CVNA lead the Continuation scan for swing candidates.