Situation Awareness: Cautious Bearish. The tape is being driven by a twin shock — a U.S.-Iran military escalation that pushed crude above $90 yesterday, and a synchronized global bond selloff sending sovereign yields to fresh 2026 highs across Japan, Germany, France, the U.K. and the U.S. Equity futures point mostly lower after Tuesday’s sharp retreat (S&P -0.7%, Nasdaq -1.0%, DJIA -0.8%), with tech and growth the primary casualties. Index price/SMA data is unavailable this session, so lean on futures: S&P 500 futures -4 at 7,639, Nasdaq futures -92 at 29,034, but Dow futures +81 at 52,909 — a defensive, split tape. Trade mode: selective and defensive; let the open and the 8:15 ADP print show their hand before committing. Today’s calls come from macro — rising rates, oil, geopolitics — not stock-specific catalysts. Regime context — 42.74% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA (down from 47.21%), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows just 104 bulls vs. 334 bears. The 5-day trend shows a consistent down sequence, confirming deteriorating momentum and a very bearish breadth backdrop.
SIP: NVS STDN PXS ENOV
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH scan holds 10 signals — decent breadth given the tape — led by defensives and quality (HUM, SPGI, META). Reversal scan carries 9, but skewed to bruised chip names (AMD, ARM, COHR) catching falling knives.
- Leading sectors: live Trending Sector and ATR data unavailable (market closed / no ATR feed). From yesterday’s close, energy (+1.5%), utilities (+0.7%) and health care (+0.6%) led; consumer discretionary (-1.9%), industrials (-1.4%) and materials (-1.4%) lagged.
- Key event: U.S. strikes on Iranian IRGC/tanker targets near the Strait of Hormuz, with retaliation threats — the dominant risk driver.
- Market read: Tuesday’s rally attempt was erased by the midday escalation; higher yields kept a lid on growth into the close. That leaves buyers cautious and rotation defensive into today.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — dry, a caution flag in its own right.
- SIPS: HUM, SPGI, META from the Continuation scan — defensives and mega-cap quality.