Situation Awareness: Cautious, tilting defensive. September opens the same way August closed — oil and bond yields are the twin spoilers, with WTI crude spiking $2.03 (+2.4%) to $87.79 after cargo ships were reportedly attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, and global sovereign yields grinding higher. S&P futures sit down 39 at 7,660, Dow futures down 276 at 52,964, Nasdaq futures down 297 at 29,216. Note: SPY/QQQ/IWM cash levels and SMAs are unavailable in today’s feed, so I’m working off futures and breadth. Trade mode: selective and defensive — let the 10:00 ET data batch (ISM, JOLTS, construction) reset the tape before committing size. Geopolitics (U.S.-Iran, Hormuz) and the relentless climb in the 10-yr toward 4.78% are calling the shots. Regime context — 46.94% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 107 bulls vs. 142 bears. The 5-day trend is mixed: the 40-day breadth eroded 4.1pp (51.04%→46.94%) while short-term 20-day breadth ticked up (19%→23%), signaling a choppy, indecisive tape rather than a clean trend.
SIP: SLB CNH GPRO WETO
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH is the richest scan with 18 signals — decent breadth led by MEDICAL names (PODD +2.4%, ASND +6.1%, TARS +3.5%). Reversal scan lighter at 14. Delayed 9M is empty.
- Sector Volatility/Trending data unavailable (market closed pre-open); from the tape, ENERGY (+2.1% Monday) is the clear macro leader on the oil surge, while utilities and industrials are the laggards.
- Key event: August ISM Manufacturing, July JOLTS, and construction spending all land at 10:00 ET — the session’s pivot point.
- Market read: Monday closed broadly weaker but off the lows (S&P -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Dow -0.7%) as late semi buying rescued the tape. The bid under tech is fragile; oil and yields are still the dominant forces into today.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — Bull 9M count just 12 vs. 11 bears, thin edge.
- SIPS: ASND, PODD, TARS from the Continuation scan.