Situation Awareness: Cautious. Futures are sliding into the open with the S&P 500 -12 at 7,679, Dow -62 at 53,291, and Nasdaq -143 at 29,245 as Iran sanctions and a collapse in U.S.-Canada trade talks reset risk appetite; SPY/QQQ/IWM technical levels are unavailable in today’s feed, so we lean on futures and breadth. Oil is finally exhaling — WTI down 2.3% to $85.08 after last week’s ~5.4% surge — which caps yields and offers the tape a small reprieve. Trade mode: selective and watchful, respect the 1:00 p.m. ET Bessent presser as the day’s swing point. Today’s context is entirely event-driven: Iran sanctions, Strait of Hormuz tanker risk, fresh Canada tariffs, and a coiled market front-running Wednesday’s PCE and NVDA. Regime context — 54.93% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 274 bulls vs. 77 bears. The 5-day trend turned up, with the 20-SMA breadth reading jumping to 60% from 53% and the 40-SMA firming +2.0pp, signaling early recovery off Friday’s rebound even as index futures point lower.
SIP: GEMI ELMT NEPH DXST
- What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan is rich with 18 signals — healthy breadth; Reversal is thin at 3 (CRWD, BKNG, DT); Delayed 9M is empty, a caution flag for fresh episodic-pivot fuel.
- Leading sectors: market closed — no live sector or theme performance; ATR volatility table also empty. Breadth is the only live read, and it favors broadening participation off Friday.
- Key event: Treasury Secretary Bessent’s 1:00 p.m. ET press conference unveiling Iran sanctions — he warned of an “economic D-Day” and that the “Iran war is entering its endgame.”
- Market read: Friday’s broad DJIA-led rebound improved the tone, but the week still closed firmly lower (S&P -1.4%, Nasdaq -2.1%) on a semiconductor unwind — expect chop until the presser clears.
- DEP watchlist: none — Delayed 9M produced zero signals today.
- SIPS: MP (mining, +9.1%), ASTS (telecom, +5.5%), PARR (energy, +9.1%) lead the Continuation setups.