Situation Awareness: Cautious. A momentum unwind is dominating the tape — Tuesday’s 5.0% collapse in the PHLX Semiconductor Index bled into a broad retreat, and futures point to another mixed, subdued open with lingering tech weakness and rising oil the twin headwinds. Index price and SMA data are unavailable this session, so lean on futures: S&P 500 futures +2 at 7,716, Dow futures +51 at 53,454, but Nasdaq futures -70 at 29,516 — the split screen tells the whole story, defensives and value holding while chips and mega-cap growth stay heavy. Trade mode: selective and defensive, let the first hour show its hand. The 2:00 p.m. ET July FOMC Minutes are the day’s fulcrum with a market undecided on the Fed’s next move, and geopolitics is live as the FT reports Iran weighed striking U.S. assets in Europe. Regime context — 56.28% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 144 bulls vs. 319 bears. The 5-day trend shows a deterioration from record highs on Aug 13 into consecutive down sessions, confirming fading momentum and a defensive rotation underway.
SIP: AMLX XOS WEAV ENRD
- What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan is moderately rich with 10 signals (ULTA, AXON, MA, TYL, DASH leading); Reversal thin at 3 (MCHP, SMCI, MMM); Delayed 9M is empty — no fresh episodic-pivot breadth.
- Sector/theme trend data is unavailable (market closed, no live ATR feed). Read sector leadership off yesterday’s tape instead: health care (+1.6%), energy (+1.8%), and consumer staples (+1.1%) led; information technology (-1.9%) and industrials (-1.5%) lagged.
- Key event: July FOMC Minutes at 14:00 ET, preceded by a $16 bln 20-yr bond auction at 13:00 ET — dual rate catalysts into the afternoon.
- Market read: Tuesday closed broadly lower as a semiconductor and momentum unwind overwhelmed defensive strength; the tone deteriorated into the close with small and mid caps (Russell 2000 -1.3%, S&P MidCap 400 -1.6%) breaking down — a warning that selling is broadening, not narrowing.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — stand down on episodic pivots.
- SIPS: ULTA (+4.8%, RVOL 1.4), AXON (+2.6%), MA (+2.1%, RVOL 1.3) as continuation swing candidates.