Situation Awareness: Cautious. Geopolitics is calling the shots — a missile strike on a ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump ruling out an extension of the Iran ceasefire have driven oil toward $85 and pushed Treasury yields higher, sinking equity futures across the board (S&P 500 futures -33 at 7,736, Nasdaq futures -341 at 29,755). Semiconductors, which had been the tape’s lone counterweight, are rolling over in the premarket, removing the market’s shock absorber. Trade mode: selective and defensive — let the first hour clarify whether oil and yields keep pressing before committing size. Today’s context is a macro squeeze — rising crude plus a 30-year yield at a fresh 2026 high (5.33%) is a poor cocktail for equities, and housing data plus the Meta addiction trial add headline risk. Regime context — 60.57% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 179 bulls vs. 274 bears. The 5-day trend has rolled over into a down sequence, with breadth deteriorating (40SMA -3.9pp day-over-day) and bears outnumbering bulls, confirming a defensive posture into the open.
SIP: HTHT AMLX FN COHR
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH is the deepest scan with 23 signals — energy is dominant (COP, CVI, FANG) alongside miners (AU, AGI) and chips (CRDO). Reversal scan is thin at 3 (TOST, FERG, ONDS).
- Leading sectors: live sector/theme performance unavailable (market closed); the ATR volatility feed is empty. Proxy read from signals: Energy and Mining carry the momentum, consistent with the oil/geopolitical bid.
- Key event: Strait of Hormuz ship attack + Iran ceasefire expiration is the day’s driver — oil up, yields up, risk off.
- Market read: Monday closed near lows (S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.3%) as an afternoon oil surge overwhelmed a strong chip rally; that fade signals sellers are in control on rallies.
- DEP watchlist: No Delayed 9M signals today — nothing qualifies.
- SIPS: COP, CRDO, FANG — energy continuation names riding the crude bid; CRDO adds a chip angle (+8.8%).