Situation Awareness: Cautious, but with a bullish catalyst just released. The tape is being driven squarely by the 8:30 ET July CPI print, which landed in-line — headline +0.1% (consensus +0.1%) and Core +0.2% (consensus +0.2%) — enough to keep the Fed from hiking in September and spark a premarket relief rally. S&P futures snapped to +20 above fair value and Nasdaq futures to +240 immediately post-release, with tech leading on strong AI earnings. Trade mode: selective and constructive — respect the CPI-driven lift but let the 10-yr auction and oil headlines confirm before pressing. Today’s context is a rare rate-HIKE debate (CME FedWatch shows 45.9% odds of a 25bp September hike), so soft inflation is the bull’s oxygen. Regime context — 60.09% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 214 bulls vs. 157 bears. The 5-day trend cooled into yesterday’s mild pullback, with breadth above the 20-SMA collapsing from 164% to 115% day-over-day, signaling near-term consolidation ahead of the print.
SIP: ALMR SLXN BWEN TISI
- What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan is rich with 16 signals — good breadth — led by VSEC (+9.3%), MELI (+6.3%), EDIT (+5.0%), MDGL (+3.9%). Reversal scan is thin at 4 (CMG, AMD, AAOI, COMP). No Delayed 9M signals today.
- Leading sectors/themes: market closed — no live Trending Sector or ATR data available; sector volatility feed is empty. Lean on the Briefing tape: semis and industrials led yesterday, comm services (-2.1%) lagged.
- Key event: July CPI in-line — the week’s marquee catalyst is now behind us and it favored the doves; $42B 10-yr auction at 1:00 ET is the next test.
- Market read: yesterday faded to modest losses on rising oil and mega-cap tech weakness, but equal-weight (+0.3%), Russell 2000 (+0.3%) and midcaps held green — resilience beneath the surface into a friendly print.
- DEP watchlist: no D9M signals firing today — stand down on that setup.
- SIPS: VSEC, MELI, MDGL from the Continuation scan.