Situation Awareness: Cautious. The tape is caught in a pre-CPI holding pattern — S&P futures sit four points above fair value and Nasdaq futures +75 as oil eases back toward $82/bbl from earlier highs near $84 on a Bloomberg report that the U.S. and Iran are close to “some sort of arrangement.” Index price data is unavailable this morning, so we anchor to breadth and futures rather than specific SPY/QQQ levels. Yesterday’s session closed modestly lower (S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.3%) as a 5.1% oil spike lifted yields and semis sold off into the bell. Trade mode: selective and watchful — this is a First Hour Pass tape ahead of tomorrow’s July CPI, the week’s marquee catalyst. Regime context — 60.48% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 242 bulls vs. 251 bears. The 5-day trend shows contracting participation, with % above 20 SMA collapsing from 240% to 164% and 40 SMA breadth slipping 4.2 points day-over-day, signaling momentum cooling beneath a resilient index surface.
SIP: B POWW AQST HIMS
- What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan is rich at 27 signals — healthy breadth despite the pullback — led by energy and materials names. Reversal scan is thin at 3; Delayed 9M is empty.
- Leading sectors (via signal clustering, market closed for live data): ENERGY (CHRD, PBF), METALS/MINING (STLD, TGB), FINANCE (APO, WT) are where the ATR and relative strength sit; the oil bid and precious-metals rally are the dominant themes.
- Key event: July CPI lands tomorrow (consensus 0.1%); CME FedWatch now prices a 51.7% chance of a September rate HIKE, up from 44.4% Friday but down from 67.2% a week ago.
- Market read: yesterday’s tape absorbed a violent oil move and a semi flush yet finished only fractionally lower — underlying strength, but leadership is narrowing. Respect the churn.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — nothing to force.
- SIPS: APO, CHRD, STLD lead the swing candidates from the Continuation scan.