Situation Awareness: Cautious. Futures point higher to close out a heavy earnings week — S&P 500 futures +18 at 7,753, Nasdaq futures +156 at 29,644, Dow futures +68 at 54,081 — but the tape is being held hostage by the 8:30 ET July jobs report (86K NFP consensus, 4.2% unemployment) and lingering Middle East oil risk. SPY/QQQ/IWM index levels are (data unavailable) this morning, so lean on futures and the S&P’s ~7,700 support cited in yesterday’s close. Trade mode: selective and watchful into the number — let the print set direction before committing size. Today’s context is all macro: payrolls feed the Warsh rate-hike debate, crude sits below $77 after Iran/Strait-of-Hormuz headlines, and breadth is quietly deteriorating even as the week’s hyperscaler/semi gains hold. Regime context — 60.95% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 257 bulls vs. 279 bears. The 5-day trend shows two consecutive underwhelming sessions after a record run, signaling momentum is cooling even as weekly gains stay intact.
SIP: TTD DOCS U IOVA
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH scan is moderately rich with 14 signals; Reversal thin at 4; Delayed 9M empty — breadth supports selective longs, not aggressive chasing.
- Leading sectors (ATR/Sector Volatility data unavailable — market closed): use yesterday’s tape — Energy (+1.6%) led on the oil surge, Information Technology (+0.1%) and Health Care (+0.1%) the only other green sectors; Real Estate (-1.0%), Materials (-0.9%) and Utilities (-0.9%) lagged.
- Key event: July Employment Situation Report at 8:30 ET is the single biggest catalyst — a hot print revives the September rate-hike narrative.
- Market read: Thursday’s oil-driven fade (S&P -0.2%, DJIA -0.9%) tells you the bid is fragile; earnings winners are rewarded but the bar is exceedingly high.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — nothing to carry.
- SIPS: VSEC, IRTC, PTC from the Continuation scan.