Situation Awareness: Cautious. A record-setting four-session rally hit its first real resistance as memory-chip guidance dragged Nasdaq futures lower while the Dow extended its record run — a split tape, not a broad reversal. SPY/QQQ/IWM cash levels are unavailable in today’s feed, but futures tell the story: S&P +11 at 7,760, Dow +130 at 54,624, Nasdaq -78 at 29,537. Trade mode: selective and watchful — let the semis shake out and let the 8:30 ET data print before committing. Today’s context is a collision of hot-inflation rate risk (FT reports Fed Chair Warsh is open to a September hike), a firming yen carry-trade backdrop, and a Middle East de-escalation trade as the U.S. and Iran near a Strait of Hormuz deal. Regime context — 65.01% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 190 bulls vs. 203 bears. The 5-day trend rallied hard into Tuesday’s record then paused Wednesday, with breadth above the 40 SMA slipping from 66.51% to 65.01% — momentum cooling at the highs, not breaking.
SIP: SII PRMB TBI CE
- What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan is thin with just 4 signals (UROY, RERE, DASH, MCK) — a dry read that argues for patience, not aggression. Delayed 9M and Reversal scans are empty.
- Leading sectors: live Trending Sector and Theme data is offline (market closed) and the ATR volatility table returned no entries — no fresh sector leadership read available; lean on yesterday’s cash-session leaders (materials +1.5%, health care +1.3%) as the fading tell.
- Key event: 8:30 ET Q2 preliminary Productivity and Unit Labor Costs — the labor-cost print carries direct inflation implications into a hawkish Warsh narrative.
- Market read: Wednesday’s orderly consolidation (S&P -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.8%, Dow +0.5%) after a ~6% four-day sprint was healthy digestion, not distribution — but the memory-name reactions overnight raise the bar for tech to reassert leadership.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — nothing qualifies.
- SIPS: DASH (2LYNCH, $207.27), MCK (2LYNCH, $877.23), UROY (2LYNCH, $3.56).