Situation Awareness: Bullish regime, broadening. The tape is riding a two-day momentum wave — the S&P 500 closed at a record above 7,700 for the first time (+1.8%) with the DJIA (+1.7%) and MidCap 400 also at all-time highs, and futures point higher again (S&P +28 @ 7,794, Dow +184 @ 54,452, Nasdaq +44 @ 29,907). Semis are the engine (PHLX Semi +6.6% yesterday), earnings are broadly beating, and collapsing oil on Strait of Hormuz peace hopes is greasing the risk-on tone. Trade mode: aggressive but selective breakout — chase quality, respect single-name earnings gaps. Today’s calls come from ADP (8:15) and July ISM Non-Manufacturing (10:00, consensus 54.7%) as pre-jobs-Friday tells, plus a possible U.S.-Iran-Oman deal to reopen the Strait announced today. Regime context — 66.41% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA (up from 61.32%), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 665 bulls vs. 111 bears. The 5-day trend has turned decisively up, confirming upward momentum after July’s semiconductor pullback.
SIP: SOPH VVOS DVA VERX
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH scan is rich with 39 signals — strong breadth. Reversal scan thin at 3 (all energy). No Delayed 9M signals firing.
- Sector Volatility (ATR) data unavailable and live trending closed; leadership read from the tape: Information Technology (+4.1%), Materials (+2.0%), Industrials (+1.8%) led yesterday, with defensives (Utilities -0.6%, Energy -0.5%) lagging.
- Key event: Possible U.S.-Iran-Oman interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — 60-day term, no tolls — could hit the wires today, extending the oil unwind.
- Market read: Yesterday was a broad, high-conviction advance — Equal Weight +1.4%, Russell 2000 +1.9%. Participation is widening beyond mega-cap, a healthy signal for continuation.
- DEP watchlist: NET NUE WAT SMCI ARW
- SIPS: NET TTAN SNX