Situation Awareness: Cautious. The tape enters Monday with a relief bid built on one thing — oil. WTI crude is down $6.13, or 6.8%, to $83.25 after reports that President Trump paused strikes against Iran and that Tehran and Oman are negotiating a new arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That single headline unwinds the entire chain that broke the market last week: higher energy, higher yields, higher rate-hike odds, lower mega-cap multiples. S&P futures sit 45 points above fair value and Nasdaq futures 273 points above, though both have faded from the overnight peak of +59 and +383 — a tell that the buy-the-dip crowd is enthusiastic but not committed. SPY, QQQ and IWM cash levels and moving averages are unavailable this morning, so we are trading futures context and breadth, not chart lines. Trade mode: selective and event-aware — take the gap-and-go names, but keep size honest into a Wednesday FOMC and a Thursday inflation print. Today’s specific context — June durable orders just landed at +0.3% month-over-month versus a 2.0% consensus, a big miss, with ex-transportation +0.6% versus 0.9% expected; soft data plus falling crude is pushing Treasury yields down across the curve, and that is the fuel for the futures bid. Regime context — 59.56% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 127 bulls vs. 309 bears. The 5-day trend is split and deteriorating at the short end: the 40-day measure improved to 59.56% from 55.34%, but the 20-day measure collapsed from 48% to 18% in a single session, signaling a sharp near-term flush inside an intact intermediate-term uptrend.
SIP: WKC SAFT OII NDLS
- What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan produced 9 signals — a mid-tier, not-rich count — led by AAPL, EQIX, VRSN and FDS. The Reversal scan produced just 1 (DDOG). Delayed 9M is empty, which tells you follow-through has been the missing ingredient.
- Live sector and theme performance is unavailable with the market closed, and the ATR volatility table is empty. Fall back to last week’s completed tape: Energy +3.8%, Utilities +2.5%, Industrials +1.8% led; Communication Services -6.2% and Consumer Discretionary -6.1% were destroyed. Themes: AI-infrastructure suppliers (PHLX Semiconductor +1.2%) beat AI-infrastructure funders decisively.
- Key event: FOMC decision Wednesday, followed by an inflation reading Thursday. Last week’s oil spike materially raised market-implied odds of a rate hike at one of the next meetings — this week resolves that.
- Market read: last week the S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.1%, and the Magnificent Seven shed roughly $800 billion in market cap on Thursday alone. The damage was concentrated, not broad — which is exactly what 59.56% above the 40-day and only 18% above the 20-day describes.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — the absence is the message. Bull 9M 12 vs. Bear 9M 29 keeps the delayed-breakout book closed.
- SIPS: EQIX (+4.9%, RVOL 1.4), VRSN (+7.0%, RVOL 2.8), FDS (+4.3%).