Situation Awareness: Cautious. After yesterday’s growth-led rout — S&P 500 -1.2%, Nasdaq -2.2%, Tesla -14.55%, Alphabet -6.89% — futures have steadied into a flattish open, with software leading a tentative rebound (MSFT +1.2% to $386.48, IGV +1.2%) even as the broader Nasdaq 100 sits modestly below fair value. Index technicals are (data unavailable) for SPY/QQQ/IWM today, so lean on breadth and futures for positioning. The dominant forces remain the cost of the AI buildout, a 10-yr yield at 4.68%, oil rolling back from a six-week high, and fresh tariff headlines on ~60 trading partners including the EU. Trade mode: selective and defensive — respect the mega-cap air pocket but hunt resilient AI-infrastructure and defensive strength. Regime context — 55.34% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 123 bulls vs. 298 bears, a decidedly heavy tilt. The 5-day trend is choppy: the 20-SMA breadth jumped to 48% from 24% (+24pp) day-over-day while the 40-SMA slipped to 55.34% from 60.52% (-5.2pp), signaling a short-term bounce inside a fading intermediate trend.
SIP: FCFS NVCR NVEC MBLY
- What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan is rich with 19 signals — healthy breadth beneath the mega-cap wreckage; Reversal scan thin at 3 (ACN, CFG, PDD); Delayed 9M empty.
- Leading sectors: live trending and ATR sector data are unavailable (market closed) — use signal clustering instead: MEDICAL dominates the continuation tape (LLY, ONC, ARGX, HCA), with METALS (NUE), TELECOM (CIEN) and RETAIL (CASY) also firing.
- Key event: 9:45 ET flash S&P Global U.S. PMIs and 10:00 ET June New Home Sales are the day’s macro catalysts; FedWatch now prices a 35.8% odds of a hike next week and 80.1% for September.
- Market read: yesterday’s damage was concentrated — Equal Weight S&P fell just 0.4% and small caps outperformed — telling us this is a mega-cap valuation reset, not a broad-market breakdown.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — nothing to stage from this bucket.
- SIPS: LLY, ARGX, CASY — cleanest continuation swing candidates on strength.