Situation Awareness: Cautious. Equity futures are under pressure this morning, failing to build on yesterday’s momentum as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions drive up oil prices. Semis are seeing early profit-taking after yesterday’s rally, but key non-semiconductor mega-caps Alphabet and Tesla face major tests with earnings after the close. Trade mode: selective and defensive. Today’s specific context — geopolitical uncertainty and critical tech earnings are shaping the pre-market. Regime context — 60.31% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 404 bulls vs. 125 bears. The 5-day trend shows a strong bullish rebound yesterday, but today’s futures suggest caution.
SIP: SMCI, T, COF, EFX
- What’s working: The Continuation scan produced 23 signals, indicating some underlying strength despite the broader market pressure.
- Leading sectors: ATR data shows high volatility in ENERGY (VIVK, MGY, HAL) and FINANCE (XXI, EFX).
- Key event: Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran with military strikes and Secretary of State Rubio’s comments on Iran “not serious” about talks is driving oil prices significantly higher.
- Market read: Yesterday’s session saw a strong rebound driven by semiconductors and mega-cap tech, shrugging off rising oil and Treasury yields. Today’s early action challenges that resilience as geopolitical concerns take precedence.
- DEP watchlist: No signals today.
- SIPS: JAZZ, FBIO, SCCO