Situation Awareness: Cautious. Futures point higher to open the week — S&P futures sit +16 versus fair value, Nasdaq futures +224 — as beaten-down semiconductors attract dip buyers and oil eases on U.S.–Iran ceasefire speculation. This is a relief bounce inside a corrective tape, not an all-clear; last week’s Nasdaq -2.9% purge and the PHLX Semi Index sliding into correction/bear territory remain the backdrop. Index levels are data unavailable for SPY/QQQ/IWM this morning, so lean on breadth and futures for positioning. Trade mode: selective and defensive — respect the bounce but demand proof before chasing momentum names that just broke. Today’s context is thin on macro catalysts: only the 10:00 ET June Leading Index (consensus 0.1%), a quiet ECB-preview week in Europe, and a heavy earnings ramp ahead. Regime context — 63.59% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 134 bulls vs. 166 bears. The 5-day trend shows a consistent deterioration, with breadth contracting -5pp day-over-day on both the 20- and 40-SMA measures, confirming downward pressure even as futures lift.
SIP: ISRG SKHY DPZ SLND
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH is rich with 27 signals — decent breadth given last week’s carnage; Reversal scan is thin at 5 (META, ANET, DDOG); Delayed 9M is empty.
- Leading sectors: market closed — no live sector/theme performance data. Prior week’s leadership: Energy +5.0%, Real Estate +2.3%, Consumer Staples +1.4% — defensives and oil beneficiaries led as tech bled.
- Key event: Chinese AI model Kimi K3 remains the market’s swing factor — the Trump administration is reportedly weighing a ban on Chinese AI models, a potential positive for U.S. semis.
- Market read: Friday closed near lows with tech extending losses; today’s futures gain is a technical bounce off oversold semis, not a trend change. Fade-the-rip risk is real.
- DEP watchlist: no D9M signals today — nothing qualifying on the delayed-momentum scan.
- SIPS: FIG, STX, MDGL — top continuation candidates for swing setups.