Situation Awareness: Cautious. Markets look to open higher, shrugging off geopolitical flares with Iran, but volatility remains elevated. Trade mode: selective and defensive. Focus is squarely on today’s jobs report and how it might influence future rate cut expectations, even as energy prices remain elevated due to ongoing tensions. President Trump renewed trade war rhetoric with the EU. Regime context — 68% of stocks trade above their 20-day SMA, while 65.9% trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 0 bulls vs. 0 bears. The 5-day trend shows a consistent down sequence, confirming downward momentum.
SIP: TNDM NUS PAR LOCO
- What’s working: earnings beats and guidance raises are generating upside (but not broad-based).
- Leading sectors: Technology (4.39 ATR, rising); leading themes: data unavailable.
- Key event: April jobs situation report, crucial for rate cut sentiment.
- Market read: yesterday’s pullback from record highs suggests some exhaustion; today’s open higher may be a relief rally or the start of a fresh leg up.
- DEP watchlist: AAL, CLSK, CORZ
- SIPS: COST, CRWD