Situation Awareness: Bearish. Market character is defined by risk‑off sentiment persisting from last week’s 2% average declines, heightened by oil‑price volatility and mixed geopolitical headlines, while today’s futures show a sharp bounce on talk of US‑Iran de‑escalation. Trade mode: selective and defensive, looking for high‑conviction setups on pullbacks rather than chasing momentum. Today’s specific context — equity futures lifted after President Trump announced postponed strikes on Iranian infrastructure and said productive talks are underway, oil fell 6.6% to $90.44, and the 10‑year Treasury eased 1 bp to 4.38% while the 2‑year rose 2 bps to 3.91%, flattening the curve. Regime context — 0% of stocks trade above their 40‑day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 0 bulls vs. 0 bears. The 5-day trend shows a consistent down sequence, confirming downward momentum despite today’s intraday bounce.
SIP: TSEM APA SNPS INSM
- What’s working: continuation/2LYNCH scan firing 35 signals, delayed 9M showing 56 signals, reversal scan generating 160 signals — indicating abundant short‑term bounce candidates but limited follow‑through breadth.
- Sector/theme: leading sectors by ATR%-M are Energy (+4.7) and Utilities (-0.08); lagging sectors are Health Care (-3.12) and Materials (-2.71).
- Key event: US‑Iran talks prompting postponement of military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, easing immediate geopolitical risk premium.
- Market read: Friday’s close saw the S&P 500 down ~2% as oil climbed toward $100 and Treasury yields rose; today’s pre‑market futures reversed sharply on the diplomatic cue, setting up a potential test of the 200‑day MA if oil remains subdued.
- DEP watchlist: VG SATL GLL
- SIPS: SEDG NAUT