10/29 Cautiously Bearish. 200 Buying | 250 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bullish. Primary Indicator is Bullish. 20% Weekly is Bullish.
Mega-cap tech strength, led by NVIDIA’s record rally, pushed major indices to new highs despite broad profit-taking in smaller caps and some sector weakness. Healthcare and select industrials showed late-session momentum, while energy and consumer discretionary lagged. Volatility remains subdued with tight ranges in SPY and QQQ, signaling a cautious consolidation ahead of tomorrow’s widely expected 25-basis point Fed rate cut.
The information technology sector led gains (+1.6%) driven by NVIDIA, Microsoft, and semiconductor-related names, while real estate, utilities, and energy sectors underperformed notably. Materials showed modest strength supported by earnings beats. Defensive healthcare and biotech names exhibited late-session buying, indicating rotation into quality amid mixed market breadth.
Tomorrow’s key catalyst is the October FOMC decision at 2:00 PM ET, with consensus expecting a 25-basis point rate cut, which could spur renewed risk appetite in lagging sectors. Watch for market reaction post-Fed for directional cues.
Key Takeaway:
Focus on mega-cap tech and semiconductor setups, especially continuation plays in high-volume leaders like NVDA and AVGO. Avoid chasing late-session fading names in consumer discretionary and mega-cap tech weakness (META, SHOP). Use the Fed decision as a pivot point to adjust exposure, favoring names with strong support and volume confirmation. Defensive healthcare momentum offers alternative swing opportunities amid cautious overall sentiment.
Watchlist
Continuation: REGN (S1: 650, S2: 648, S3: 642, R1: 656, R2: 660, R3: 665)
Anticipation: NVDA (S1: 200, S2: 199.5, S3: 197.5, R1: 203, R2: 205, R3: 208)