9/17 Cautiously Bullish. 300 Buying | 150 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bearish. Primary Indicator is Bullish. 20% Weekly is Neutral.
The market showed a cautious tone ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq briefly hitting new all-time highs before settling slightly lower. Despite solid August Retail Sales and industrial production data supporting consumer and manufacturing resilience, overall price action was sideways, reflecting investor hesitation.
Energy (+1.7%) led sector gains, boosted by a 2% rise in crude oil, while consumer discretionary also showed strength, helped by Tesla and Amazon. Defensive sectors like utilities lagged, and breadth remained modestly negative, underscoring the “wait and see” mood. Volatility (VXX) remains subdued, supporting a stable environment for equities.
Key catalysts include tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision, the updated Summary of Economic Projections, and Chair Powell’s press conference, which will guide expectations on further rate cuts later this year.
Key Takeaway:
Swing traders should focus on selective long setups in strong sectors like energy and consumer discretionary, watching for confirmed breakouts above recent highs. Avoid chasing extended mega-cap names without volume confirmation. Keep stops tight ahead of Fed volatility and monitor support levels near the 50-day SMA, which remains a key technical pivot.
Watchlist
Continuation: AVAV (S1: 262.5, S2: 261, S3: 258, R1: 264.5, R2: 266, R3: 268)
Anticipation: NVDA (S1: 175, S2: 174, S3: 173.5, R1: 176, R2: 177, R3: 178.5)