7/2 Cautiously Bullish. 510 Buying | 210 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bullish – Caution. Primary Indicator is Bullish. 20% Weekly is Bullish – Caution.
The market opened Q3 with a rotation favoring small- and mid-caps and value stocks, driven by optimism from a stronger JOLTS report and a slower manufacturing contraction. Despite weakness in mega-cap tech names like TSLA and NVDA, broad buying interest supported the equal-weight S&P 500’s outperformance. Treasury yields rose modestly amid Fed rate cut doubts, adding a cautious tone.
Materials (+2.3%), healthcare (+1.4%), energy (+0.8%), and consumer staples (+0.8%) led sectors, while communication services (-1.2%) and information technology (-1.1%) lagged. Volatility remains subdued, with VXX showing minor spikes but no sustained surge.
Key catalysts include Wednesday’s House debate on the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” and economic data such as June ADP Employment Change and EIA Crude Oil Inventories.
Key Takeaway:
Focus on sector rotation plays, favoring materials and healthcare for swing trades while avoiding extended mega-cap tech weakness. Watch for volume-supported moves near support levels in financials and select technology stocks like ACN and AMAT. Maintain tight stops given cautious sentiment and mixed volume signals.
Watchlist
Continuation:
ACN (S1: 303, S2: 302.5, S3: 302.5, R1: 303.5, R2: 304, R3: 305)
AMAT (S1: 183.5, S2: 183.5, S3: 183.5, R1: 184, R2: 184.5, R3: 185)
Anticipation:
NVDA (S1: 153, S2: 152.5, S3: 151.5, R1: 154.5, R2: 155.5, R3: 156)
AMZN (S1: 221, S2: 220.5, S3: 219.5, R1: 222.5, R2: 223, R3: 224)