9/30 Cautiously Bullish. 375 Buying | 180 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bearish. Primary Indicator is Bullish – Caution. 20% Weekly is Bullish – Caution.
The market closed modestly higher as early mega-cap strength faded, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.3% and 0.5% respectively but off session highs. Technology led gains alongside financials, consumer discretionary, and materials, while energy fell sharply on OPEC+ production news. Breadth was mixed, reflecting low conviction amid a quiet macro backdrop focused on the looming government funding deadline and cautious Fed commentary ahead of October’s FOMC.
Tech hardware and semiconductors showed late-day accumulation, led by Western Digital and NVIDIA, supporting continuation plays. Consumer discretionary and financials also showed strength. Energy weakness dragged the sector lower as crude oil prices dropped over 3%. Volatility remained subdued, supporting a cautiously constructive risk environment.
Key upcoming catalysts include Tuesday’s Employment Situation Report, at risk due to a potential government shutdown, and early week housing data. Fed commentary remains a focus amid mixed signals on monetary policy direction.
Key Takeaway:
Swing traders should focus on names showing late-session volume expansion and closes near highs, especially in tech hardware/semis and consumer discretionary, while avoiding energy and lagging telecoms. Watch for support holds in key continuation setups and be prepared for volatility spikes if the government funding situation deteriorates. Maintain tight stops below recent higher lows and scale into strength given the cautious but constructive tone.
Watchlist
Continuation: WDC (S1: 116, S2: 115.5, S3: 114.5, R1: 117, R2: 118, R3: 120)
Anticipation: ULTA (S1: 547, S2: 545, S3: 541, R1: 550, R2: 553, R3: 560)