9/25 Cautiously Bullish. 300 Buying | 170 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bearish. Primary Indicator is Bullish – Caution. 20% Weekly is Bullish – Caution.
The market paused its record run as mega-cap weakness triggered a midday sell-off, but pockets of strength in energy and consumer discretionary cushioned losses. Volatility remains subdued with VXX stable, supporting a cautiously optimistic tone amid fading volume near recent highs.
Energy led gains (+1.2%) on rising crude oil prices, while materials and tech sectors lagged due to guidance cuts and mixed AI news. Consumer discretionary showed resilience, driven by Tesla and specialty retail strength. Semis were mixed with TSM steady but others fading late.
Watch for Thursday’s Q2 GDP and Durable Goods data as key catalysts for direction. Fed commentary remains hawkish with no expected rate cuts, adding to caution.
Key Takeaway:
Focus on selective continuation setups in discretionary and crypto-adjacent names showing volume-backed momentum. Avoid chasing fading or weak sectors like materials and alt-energy. Use tight stops amid mixed breadth and fading volume near resistance. Monitor macro data closely for breakout or breakdown confirmation.
Watchlist
Continuation: CAN (S1: 0.87, S2: 0.85, S3: 0.84, R1: 0.89, R2: 0.91, R3: 0.94)
Anticipation: BKKT (S1: 19.20, S2: 18.80, S3: 18.00, R1: 20.00, R2: 20.80, R3: 21.50)