9/4 Cautiously Bullish. 220 Buying | 190 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bearish. Primary Indicator is Bullish – Caution. 20% Weekly is Bullish – Caution.
The market showed a mixed finish with mega-cap tech leadership driving modest gains as Alphabet and Apple rallied on favorable legal and partnership news, while broader sectors lagged. Communication Services led with a strong 3.8% gain, supported by Alphabet’s rally, and Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary posted modest advances. Energy was notably weak, pressured by a 2.1% drop in crude oil amid OPEC+ supply talks. Volatility declined as VXX fell sharply, reflecting easing market fears and a risk-on sentiment.
Fed commentary and soft labor data continue to fuel expectations for a September rate cut, with a 95.6% probability priced in, keeping traders cautious but optimistic. Upcoming economic data includes ADP Employment Change, ISM Services, and weekly inventories, which could influence near-term momentum.
Key Takeaway:
Focus on mega-cap tech and communication services for continuation plays, using support near recent lows for entries. Avoid energy and small/mid caps showing weakness and elevated tariff risks in retail. Manage risk tightly given mixed breadth and watch for volume spikes confirming breakouts above key resistance levels.
Watchlist
Continuation: WDAY (S1: 232, S2: 233, S3: 234.5, R1: 236, R2: 238, R3: 240)
Continuation: FICO (S1: 1510, S2: 1520, S3: 1525, R1: 1535, R2: 1540, R3: 1550)
Anticipation: HUBS (S1: 465, S2: 463, S3: 463, R1: 472, R2: 474, R3: 476)
Anticipation: INSM (S1: 142.5, S2: 142, S3: 141, R1: 144, R2: 145, R3: 146)