6/23 Cautious Bearish. 250 Buying | 325 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bearish. Primary Indicator is Bullish – Caution. 20% Weekly is Bullish.
Mixed action as markets digest rate cut speculation amid geopolitical uncertainty; semiconductor and mega-cap tech weakness weighed on the Nasdaq while energy led with modest gains. Communication services fell sharply on EU fines and regulatory pressure. Volatility remains low with VXX declining, supporting a cautious risk-on stance.
Energy (+1.1%) outperformed alongside consumer discretionary earnings beats from CarMax and Kroger, while semiconductors and communication services underperformed due to U.S.-China tech restrictions and EU legal rulings against Google. Treasury yields fluctuated modestly but ended slightly lower.
Upcoming catalyst: Flash June S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI on Monday; Existing Home Sales data also due Monday morning.
Key Takeaway:
Swing traders should approach with caution given mixed breadth and bearish volume dominance in the 4% movers. Focus on energy and consumer discretionary sectors showing relative strength, while avoiding tech and communication services until clearer support forms. Use tight stops near key support levels and watch for reaction to Monday’s PMI data to gauge momentum continuation or reversal.
Watchlist
Continuation: KNSL (S1: 472.5, S2: 471.5, S3: 471.5, R1: 476, R2: 477.5, R3: 479)
Anticipation: ULTA (S1: 469, S2: 465, S3: 460, R1: 475, R2: 480, R3: 485)