# Post-Market SA — 2026-02-16
# WaveRider Post-Market Situation Awareness
2026-02-16 Close
1. Market Summary
Market remains choppy and indecisive with mixed breadth signals. Bull 4% at 279 vs Bear 90 shows recent upside pressure, but only 33% of stocks above 20-SMA indicates underlying weakness. Primary trend still bearish (456 bull vs 519 bear 25Q). Sentiment: Neutral-Defensive — not enough follow-through to commit capital aggressively.
2. Sector Analysis
Top 3 Momentum Leaders:
- Utilities (4.12 ATR%-M, 100th percentile) — Defensive rotation active
- Energy (3.29 ATR%-M, rising, 79th percentile) — Commodity strength
- Consumer Defensive (2.46 ATR%-M, 84th percentile) — Risk-off positioning
Bottom 3 Laggards:
- Communication Services (-1.50 ATR%-M, 11th percentile)
- Technology (-1.49 ATR%-M, 21st percentile)
- Healthcare (-0.81 ATR%-M, 11th percentile)
PLASTICS Warning: All three traditional growth sectors (Tech, Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary) are bottom-tier. Growth is out of favor — follow the money to defensives.
3. Strategy Signals
2LYNCH Continuation (80 signals):
- CIEN ($303.92, +3.7%) — TELECOM, INST, 3.8 ATR%-M, 164% risk zone
- CRWD ($429.64, +4.4%) — SOFTWARE, INST, 1.1 RVOL
- EE ($41.84, +3.7%) — UTILITY, 10.3 ATR%-M, riding defensive wave
Delayed 9M + MAGNA53 (125 signals):
- FSLY ($18.26, +13.8%) — 5.6 RVOL, 11.7 ATR%-M, SOFTWARE, EP catalyst active
- RIG ($6.54, +8.5%) — ENERGY, 1.7 RVOL, 8.1 ATR%-M
- AKAM ($111.76, +6.8%) — SOFTWARE, INST, 1.8 RVOL, 5.7 ATR%-M
9M Catalyst BBT (17 signals):
- TPH ($46.37, +26.8%) — 28.7 RVOL (!), BUILDING, 9.5 ATR%-M
- ATOM ($3.92, +64%) — 45.8 RVOL, CHIPS (extreme volatility)
- CRSR ($6.79, +48.3%) — 33.5 RVOL, COMPUTER
- RIVN ($17.73, +26.6%) — AUTO, INST, 4.9 RVOL
Darvas Box (366 signals):
- AEM ($216.59, +5.5%) — MINING, INST, 3.3 ATR%-M
- AG ($22.96, +6.3%) — MINING, rising
- ALB ($166.35, +4.7%) — CHEMICAL, INST
EG100 STORY Stocks (584 signals):
- ACHC ($16.77, +5.5%) — MEDICAL, 3.4 ATR%-M
- AG ($22.96, +6.3%) — MINING momentum
- AEHR ($28.84, +3.4%) — CHIPS, 1.3 ATR%-M
4. Strategy Article Insights
FSLY appears in both Delayed 9M and 9M Catalyst — confirmed institutional upgrade (Citi $10→$13) drove 5.6x volume surge. IRON episodic pivot crashed -28% on FDA rejection letter (avoid fallen knives). Defensive rotation confirmed by GP earnings beat (+11%) and CNDT collaboration news. Energy sector strength validated by RIG and EPD catalyst volume.
5. Trade Ideas
| Ticker | Strategy | Entry Zone | Risk% | Thesis |
|——–|———-|————|——-|——–|
| FSLY | 9M+Delayed | $18.00-18.50 | 6.6% | Institutional upgrade, 5.6 RVOL, SOFTWARE breakout |
| EE | 2LYNCH | $41.50-42.00 | 10.3% | UTILITY leader, defensive rotation play |
| RIG | Delayed 9M | $6.40-6.60 | 8.1% | ENERGY momentum, 1.7 RVOL catalyst |
| AEM | Darvas | $214-217 | 3.3% | MINING, INST quality, gold sector strength |
| CRWD | 2LYNCH | $426-430 | 1.7% | SOFTWARE INST, continuation above range |
6. Action Codes of the Day
ABC — Always Be in Control
- Evidence: Only 33% above 20-SMA, choppy sector leadership, growth sectors negative
- Action: No FOMO chasing. Wait for clean setups with confirmation. Market hasn’t shown its hand yet.
BBT — Big Bang Theory
- Evidence: TPH (28.7 RVOL), ATOM (45.8 RVOL), CRSR (33.5 RVOL) — extreme volume precedes major moves
- Action: Monitor these high-RVOL names for continuation or reversal patterns tomorrow. Volume = institutions positioning.
PLASTICS (Inverted)
- Evidence: Tech -1.49, Healthcare -0.81, Cons Disc +0.43 ATR%-M — all underperforming
- Action: Rotate OUT of traditional growth. Focus on Utilities (+4.12), Energy (+3.29), Defensives (+2.46) until rotation reverses.
7. Tomorrow’s Prep
- Key Levels: Watch for 33% Above 20-SMA to move above 40% (bullish shift) or drop below 30% (bearish breakdown)
- Momentum Sectors: Utilities and Energy continue rising trends — scan for fresh breakouts in XLE, XLU holdings
- Forming Setups: CIEN, CRWD building continuation patterns; AG, AEM in Darvas boxes ready to expand
Bottom Line: Defensive rotation active. Don’t fight the tape — trade what’s working (Utilities, Energy), avoid what’s broken (Tech, Comms). Let the market come to you.