Closing SA — 2026-11-13

Situation Awareness: Cautious. Futures opened higher after a softer October PPI headline, but the move faded within the first hour. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell as much as 6.5% before closing down 3.4%. SPY finished at $754.21 (-0.38%), below its SMA20 and SMA50 but above its SMA200 of $731.92. QQQ closed at $679.89 (-1.20%), slipping just below its SMA200 of $682.24. Trade mode for Monday: selective and defensive. Favor relative-strength names outside semiconductors, keep size small, and do not chase gap-ups ahead of Tuesday’s NVIDIA report. The defining context was rising rates. The 10-yr yield closed at 5.15%, its highest settlement in more than four weeks, after Fed officials Williams and Goolsbee said more tightening is likely needed. Regime context — 56.1% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 56.0% prior day, regime held at Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 135 bulls vs. 274 bears. The 5-day trend began with a powerful Monday rally, then gave back ground in choppy, alternating sessions into Friday. That pattern points to rally exhaustion rather than a fresh breakdown.

SIP: NSPR RCT CEG TLN

• What’s working today: mean-reversion and base setups outnumbered momentum. Signal counts were 2LYNCH: 3, D9M: 1, 9M Catalyst: 1, Reversal Bullish: 15, Darvas Box: 14.
• Leading sectors: Communication Services (+0.22%), Real Estate (-0.02%), Consumer Defensive (-0.12%). Leading themes: Cannabis (+10.54%), Medical Research Equipment & Services (+6.01%), Household Appliances (+1.95%).
• Key event: the October PPI rose 0.3% m/m, below the 0.4% consensus, but September was revised up to 1.4%. Final demand prices are up 6.5% y/y, the largest increase since November 2022, and yields reversed higher on the news.
• Regime threading: the morning SA called Cautious (56.0%), and the close is Cautious (56.1%). The regime held because the equal-weighted S&P 500 turned positive (+0.2%), which offset tech weakness.
• DEP watchlist: SCHW ($92.99, +1.4%) is the only D9M signal. NU ($13.21, +11.7%) is a 9M Catalyst follow-through candidate.
• SIPS: RYTM ($115.02), SENS ($10.56) and CSGP ($30.96) from the Continuation scan.

Market Breadth — 2026-11-13

Sentiment 4%	Bearish	40SMA	Neutral
Bull 4%	135	Bear 4%	274
% > 20 SMA	54.03%	% > 40 SMA	56.12%
Bull 9M	9	Bear 9M	12