Closing SA — 2026-11-12

Situation Awareness: Cautious. NVIDIA’s CEO shock gapped tech lower, the S&P 500 rallied back toward its 50-day moving average (7671) and failed, and the index closed -0.35% at 7592.47 while SPY ($757.12) held above its 200-day SMA ($731.62) but stayed below its 20- and 50-day lines. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive, with small size until October PPI at 8:30 AM ET clears and the tape shows it can hold a rebound. Three things drove the tape: Jensen Huang’s immediate resignation from NVIDIA, renewed worries about AI-buildout financing after Nebius’s guidance, and a bond selloff that pushed the 10-yr yield to 5.10% as odds of a 50-bp December hike rose. Regime context — 56.1% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 60.0% prior day, regime held at Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 99 bulls vs. 429 bears. The recent trend is choppy and alternating, with Wednesday’s broad rally fully reversed by Thursday’s weak breadth, so there is no follow-through in either direction.

SIP: NVDA NBIS XNDU CEG

• What’s working today: only counter-trend and base setups fired. 2LYNCH: 0, D9M: 0, Reversal: 3 (CRWD, TEM, OSCR), Darvas Box: 12, heavy in refiners (VLO, MPC, PSX, DK).
• Leading sectors: Energy (+0.57%), Technology (-0.04%), Industrials (-0.80%). Leading themes: Consumer Electronics (+6.43%), Computer Hardware/Peripherals (+5.98%), Semiconductor Manufacturing (+2.54%).
• Key event: Jensen Huang resigned as NVIDIA president, CEO and board member, effective immediately, with CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO. NVDA opened down more than 14% and closed -4.34% at $166.19.
• Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious (60.0%), closing is Cautious (56.1%). The regime held, but breadth slipped 3.9pp as the failed rebound and rising yields hit small caps hardest.
• DEP watchlist: no D9M signals fired today. The nearest substitutes are the energy Darvas boxes: VLO, MPC, PSX and DK.
• SIPS: no Continuation (2LYNCH) signals today. The swing focus shifts to the refiner Darvas boxes (VLO, MPC) and NET’s base.

Market Breadth — 2026-11-12

Sentiment 4%	Very Bearish	40SMA	Neutral
Bull 4%	99	Bear 4%	429
% > 20 SMA	55.09%	% > 40 SMA	56.1%
Bull 9M	4	Bear 9M	27