Closing SA — 2026-11-11

Situation Awareness: Cautious. CoreWeave’s better-than-feared results sparked a relief rally across the AI-infrastructure complex. The S&P 500 gained 1.31% to 7619.45 and the Nasdaq rose 1.60%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 5.7% after being up as much as 7.9%. SPY ($759.68) and QQQ ($690.38) both finished above their 200-day moving averages but stalled just under their 20-day lines. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective, with an eye toward early strength in semis and AI infrastructure, but no chasing ahead of Nebius earnings and the Treasury market reopening. Today’s tape was driven by renewed confidence in AI capex: CRWV’s $132.5 billion backlog, raised fiscal 2026 outlook and clearer financing plan eased the debt-funding fears that had crushed the group, all on a Veterans Day session with the bond market closed. Regime context — 60.0% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 58.5% prior day, regime held at Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 341 bulls vs. 117 bears. The 5-day trend is choppy but tilted upward: the S&P was up 3.6% week-to-date by midday after a down Tuesday, which signals an early recovery that has not yet cleared overhead moving-average resistance.

SIP: CRWV MU CEG TLN

• What’s working today: Darvas Box led with 11 signals, D9M fired 5, Reversal Bullish 5, 2LYNCH 3, 9M Catalyst 1 (CRWV), and the 20% Study had none. These are box breakouts and fresh momentum, not mature continuation.
• Leading sectors: the Sector Movers table ranks Industrials (+51.84%), Healthcare (+40.86%) and Technology (+32.05%) on top, but micro-cap outliers distort those figures (STAI, ADTX, SOBR). Clean S&P sector leaders were IT +2.7%, Energy +1.8% and Industrials +1.3%. Leading themes: Biomedical/Biotech (+2212%), Technology Services (+307.88%) and Oil & Gas Refining (+28.23%), also outlier-skewed. The real theme was semiconductors and AI infrastructure.
• Key event: CRWV +24.7% to $60.77 on 2.1x relative volume. Revenue beat, adjusted operating margin rose to 10% from 5%, and guidance was raised. The move lifted DELL +11.8%, MU +11.9% and ORCL +8.8%.
• Regime threading: the morning SA called Cautious (58.5%) and the close is Cautious (60.0%). The regime held because breadth improved 1.4pp, but it stays well short of the 65% Bullish threshold, and leadership remained concentrated in tech.
• DEP watchlist: ORCL, AXTI, BLZE, AAPL, NFLX.
• SIPS: AAPL, CASY, ARE.

Market Breadth — 2026-11-11

Sentiment 4%	Very Bullish	40SMA	Bullish
Bull 4%	341	Bear 4%	117
% > 20 SMA	61.4%	% > 40 SMA	59.99%
Bull 9M	30	Bear 9M	7