Closing SA — 2026-11-10

Situation Awareness: Cautious. A hotter-than-expected October CPI sent the 10-yr yield briefly above 5.00% and pushed the Nasdaq down as much as 1.7% intraday. Stocks then recovered most of the damage: SPY closed at $749.79 (-0.38%), still above its 200-day SMA of $730.99. QQQ closed at $674.72 (-0.68%), below its 200-day SMA of $681.42. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive, favoring non-tech leadership and waiting for confirmation before adding risk. Today’s defining context was a rate shock plus mega-cap tech weakness, with NVDA down 5.53% and MSFT down 2.20%. The equal-weighted S&P 500 finished flat, so the damage was narrow, not broad. Regime context — 58.52% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 60.3% prior day, regime held at Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 130 bulls vs. 242 bears. The 5-day trend is a post-election whipsaw: a steep selloff last week, a +2.4% S&P rebound Monday, and a give-back today, signaling choppy, two-way trade rather than a clean trend.

SIP: AAON TTD NVDA APT

What’s working today: 2LYNCH: 3, D9M: 0, Reversal: 3, plus 8 Darvas Box signals. Base-holding setups are outnumbering fresh momentum ignitions.
Leading sectors: Industrials (+51.98%, distorted by an STAI outlier), Energy (+1.22%), Communication Services (-0.14%). Leading themes: Medical Software (+24.79%), Medical Systems & Equipment (+21.77%), Metal Handling & Automation (+5.62%). All three themes are skewed by single-stock spikes. Per Briefing, the real leaders were Financials (+0.5%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.5%).
Key event: October CPI rose 0.4% m/m (vs 0.3% consensus) and core rose 0.3% (vs 0.2%). A December hike to 4.00-4.25% is now fully priced, with a 65% probability of another hike in January.
Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious (60.3%), closing is Cautious (58.5%). The regime held because the afternoon rotation into financials and discretionary kept the equal-weight index flat, though breadth eroded 1.8pp.
DEP watchlist: No D9M or 9M Catalyst signals fired today. Use Darvas names BNY, GH, MATX and EG100 name CVS as the episodic-pivot proxy list.
SIPS: AKAM (2LYNCH, RVOL 3.6), LBTYK (2LYNCH plus EG100), FDS (2LYNCH, institutional).

Market Breadth — 2026-11-10

Sentiment 4%	Bearish	40SMA	Neutral
Bull 4%	130	Bear 4%	242
% > 20 SMA	60.94%	% > 40 SMA	58.52%
Bull 9M	10	Bear 9M	8