Closing SA — 2026-11-06

Situation Awareness: Cautious. The session started with a semiconductor-led rebound after Thursday’s rout, but gains faded through the afternoon. SPY closed at $735.44 (+0.33%), just above its 200-day SMA of $730.38. QQQ (+1.40%) remains well below its 200-day, and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index fell 0.5%. Trade mode for Monday: selective and defensive; buy only early strength that holds, and keep size small while VIX sits above 25. A hot October jobs report (165K vs. 65K consensus) pushed December rate-hike odds to 79.1%, which capped the AI bounce and left the major averages near session lows. Regime context — 52.21% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 52.6% prior day, regime held at Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 201 bulls vs. 127 bears. The 5-day trend whipsawed: a weak-breadth semis bounce Tuesday, a broad post-election rally Wednesday, the worst S&P day since April 2025 on Thursday, and only a partial, fading rebound Friday, leaving sizable weekly losses.

SIP: CEG DNA PENG

• What’s working: Darvas Box was the busiest scan with 9 signals, led by healthcare (HUM, CGON, RVMD, ORKA). Other counts were thin: 2LYNCH: 2, D9M: 2, Reversal: 3, 9M Catalyst: 0.
• Leading sectors: Basic Materials (+2.31%), Healthcare (+2.03%), Communication Services (+1.46%). Leading themes: Medical Research Equipment & Services (+12.26%), Telecom Infrastructure (+6.02%), Air Freight (+5.30%).
• Key event: October payrolls of 165K and 4.1% unemployment, plus SF Fed President Daly saying more tightening is likely, lifted December hike odds to 79.1% from 66.9%.
• Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious (52.6%), closing is Cautious (52.2%). The regime held because the 20-day breadth bounce (+9.0pp to 73%) was not confirmed by the 40-day measure, which slipped 0.3pp.
• DEP watchlist: COMP, INSM. Only two D9M names qualified, which shows how thin quality setups are.
• SIPS: KRMN, FLY. Both are aerospace and defense continuation candidates on heavy relative volume.

Market Breadth — 2026-11-06

Sentiment 4%	Bullish	40SMA	Bearish
Bull 4%	201	Bear 4%	127
% > 20 SMA	73%	% > 40 SMA	52.21%
Bull 9M	12	Bear 9M	7