Closing SA — 2026-10-15

Situation Awareness: Cautious-Bearish. Thursday staged an impressive reversal — the S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq (+0.1%) and DJIA (+1.1%) all clawed back early losses while the Russell 2000 (+1.4%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.0%) led, and the Equal-Weight S&P jumped 1.3%, far outpacing the cap-weighted tape; SPY/QQQ/IWM index levels and moving averages are (data unavailable) today, so I will not quote specific SPY/QQQ/IWM prices or SMA levels. The defining catalysts: a continued unwind of the AI/semiconductor trade (PHLX Semi down as much as 4.4% before closing just -0.9%), a sharp safe-haven drop in Treasury yields (10-yr -10bps to 5.09%), and a hot September PPI (headline +1.3% m/m, 6.3% y/y). Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive — respect the AI-financing fear but lean into the broadening beneath the surface. Regime context — 35.5% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 24.8% prior day, regime shifted from Bearish to Cautious-Bearish), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 404 bulls vs. 128 bears. The 5-day trend turned up after a sharp washout, signaling an early, fragile recovery driven by breadth rather than mega-cap leadership.

SIP: CRWV COIN TSM RXRX

• What’s working: Continuation (2LYNCH) fired 23 signals, D9M 21, Reversal Bullish 14, and Darvas Box a heavy 32 — momentum and dip-reversal setups both active as beaten-down names stabilized.
• Leading sectors (scan universe): Technology +2.73%, Consumer Cyclical +2.05%, Communication Services +1.99%; leading themes: Medical Software +7.69%, Crypto/Blockchain +6.6%, Biomedical/Biotech +6.24%.
• Key event: CoreWeave (CRWV +5.94% to $69.69) reversed from a ~20% weekly plunge after Bloomberg reported Jensen Huang believes its financials are improving and need no backstop — the sentiment pivot that rescued AI infrastructure names.
• Regime threading: morning SA called Bearish (24.8%), closing is Cautious-Bearish (35.5%) — shifted higher because breadth exploded intraday even as mega-cap tech stayed heavy; the +10.8pp jump in %>40SMA confirms a real participation improvement, not just an index bounce.
• DEP watchlist: CRWV $70.09, NBIS $188.80, MU $931.14, IONQ $34.51, CTSH $65.76.
• SIPS (Continuation swing candidates): FICO $769.90, EXPE $291.92, ADSK $245.39, AZO $3059.62, WSM $251.96.

Market Breadth — 2026-10-15

Sentiment 4%	Very Bullish	40SMA	Bullish
Bull 4%	404	Bear 4%	128
% > 20 SMA	17%	% > 40 SMA	35.53%
Bull 9M	28	Bear 9M	13