Situation Awareness: Bearish. Friday’s tape staged a late-afternoon recovery off session lows as a 2.8% surge in the PHLX Semiconductor Index dragged the S&P 500 (+0.2%) and Nasdaq (+0.4%) into the green, while the DJIA (-0.2%), Russell 2000 (-0.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.3%) lagged — a narrow, mega-cap-led bounce, not a broad advance. Index prices vs. the 200-day MA are unavailable in today’s data, so no specific SPY/QQQ/IWM levels are cited. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive — respect the narrow leadership and let early strength prove itself. The defining context: the 10-year note yield rose five basis points to 5.00%, pinning down utilities (-1.3%), homebuilders and materials while chips and select mega-caps carried the load. Regime context — 23.9% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 32.0% prior day, regime shifted from Cautious-Bearish to Bearish), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 146 bulls vs. 122 bears. The 5-day trend has been choppy and rate-driven, and today’s breadth flush confirms deteriorating internals despite green headline indices.
SIP: SNDK STX COHR COIN
- What’s working: Continuation (2LYNCH) fired 8 signals led by chips (AMAT +6.5%, ADI +3.6%, ASML +3.0%, WDC +4.1%); D9M: 2 (AAOI, BTDR); Reversal Bullish: 2 (RBLX, CMG); 9M Catalyst: 1 (BABA).
- Leading sectors: Financial +0.47%, Industrials -0.29%, Consumer Defensive -0.31% (most sectors red); leading themes: Crypto/Blockchain +5.14%, Generic Drugs +4.7%, Cannabis +3.56%.
- Key event: SEC “Innovation Exemption” plus Bitcoin past $81,000 lit up Coinbase (COIN +11.66%) and Robinhood (HOOD +9.12%); memory/storage (SNDK +10.99%, STX +6.93%) rode AI data-center demand.
- Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious-Bearish (32.0%), closing is Bearish (23.9%) — shifted lower as rising yields crushed rate-sensitive breadth even while headline indices rose.
- DEP watchlist: AAOI ($105.17, +7.3%), BTDR ($12.98, +15.5%), BABA ($113.25, +4.3%).
- SIPS: AMAT ($444.66), ADI ($375.89), WDC ($441.41) — chip continuation into tomorrow.
Market Breadth — 2026-09-18
| Sentiment 4% | Bullish | 40SMA | Bearish |
| Bull 4% | 146 | Bear 4% | 122 |
| % > 20 SMA | 27% | % > 40 SMA | 23.9% |
| Bull 9M | 20 | Bear 9M | 14 |