Closing SA — 2026-04-29

Situation Awareness: Cautious. The market finished flat-to-negative across major indices after a volatile session dominated by oil-driven energy strength and macro uncertainty ahead of mega-cap earnings. SPY, QQQ, and IWM all closed in the red or flat with no SMA data available — only broad index closing prices are reported: Dow -280.12 at 48861.81 (-0.57%), Nasdaq +9.44 at 24673.24 (+0.04%), S&P -2.85 at 7135.95 (-0.04%). Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive. Today’s defining context: geopolitical oil surge ($106.98 WTI, +7.0%) offset by earnings strength in semiconductor and select consumer names. Regime context — 64.35% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 71.1% prior day, regime shifted from Bullish to Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 117 bulls vs. 233 bears. The 5-day trend turned down for two consecutive sessions, confirming early momentum weakening after last week’s momentum surge.

SIP: SAGT KALV VIRT EAT

• What’s working today: 2LYNCH: 315, D9M: 101, Reversal: 315 — strong continuation signals in energy and chips, but reversal signals dominate breadth.
• Leading sectors: Energy (+1.81 ATR, +2.23% daily change), Technology (+2.19 ATR, +1.64% daily change), Financials (+1.90 ATR, flat). Leading themes: AI capex (MXL +29.8%, NXPI +25.6%), semiconductors (STX +11.1%, INTC +12.1%), earnings beat-and-raise (SBUX +8.45%, TMUS +6.13%).
• Key event: April FOMC decision — no rate change, three presidents dissented on easing bias language; Powell confirmed as governor post-May 15.
• Regime threading: morning SA called Bullish (71.1%), closing is Cautious (64.3%) — shifted due to declining % above 40 SMA (-6.7pp) and narrowing leadership.
• DEP watchlist: AMD (337.13, +4.3%), NOK (12.48, +10.4%), CNC (53.98, +8.9%), RIG (6.95, +2.4%), INTC (94.78, +12.1%) — all with strong momentum and institutional backing.
• SIPS: SAGT (1.70), KALV (19.24), VIRT (48.91) — all reported after-hours results with strong Q1 beat-and-raise patterns.