Situation Awareness: Bullish. The market eased in a tech-led retreat ahead of the FOMC decision, with SPI (-0.5%), QQQ (-0.9%), and IWM (-0.9%) pressured by semiconductor weakness and OpenAI revenue concerns. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive, favor early strength and avoid reactive short entries on weakness. Today’s defining context was profit-taking in mega-cap AI leaders after a 12-session winning streak, as NVDA (-1.63%) and GLW (-8.90%) sold off on guidance caution despite strong Q1 results. Regime context — 70.5% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 70.3% prior, regime held at Bullish), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 77 bulls vs 170 bears. The 5-day trend flattened out, with two sessions up and three down, signaling fading momentum but no breakdown in structure.
SIP: GLW NVDA PNR AMKR
- What’s working today: 2LYNCH: 67, D9M: 84, Reversal: 341 signals — continuation themes held despite sector rotation
- Leading sectors: Energy (+1.7%) (up +1.06 ATR%), Financials (+2.1 ATR%), and Consumer Staples (+0.8 trend); leading themes: commodities-driven defensives, AI infrastructure rotation, high-beta energy outperformance
- Key event — Wall Street Journal report on OpenAI missing internal revenue/user targets triggered broader AI capex fears, especially in GLW, NVDA, and AMD
- Regime threading: morning SA called Bullish (70.3%), closing is Bullish (70.5%) — held as breadth held >70% on 40-SMA despite sector rotation
- DEP watchlist: CNC, RIG, CNC, BEN, AMKR
- SIPS: CEG (price target cut, but ATR% rebounding), NBR (+3.2% on oil), GLW (sell-the-news setup, but long-term AI demand intact)
Market Breadth — 2026-04-28
| Sentiment 4% | Bearish | 40SMA | Neutral |
| Bull 4% | 77 | Bear 4% | 170 |
| % > 20 SMA | 27% | % > 40 SMA | 70.45% |
| Bull 9M | 9 | Bear 9M | 25 |