Situation Awareness: Cautious. Today’s session saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq push to record highs on strong mega-cap tech leadership — SPY +0.8%, QQQ +1.6% — despite a flat S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index, confirming narrow leadership. The trade unfolded as optimism around a potential Iran ceasefire and stable oil prices ($91.30) outweighed concerns over industrial weakness (CAT -3.03%, CARR -9.45%). Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive, with emphasis on early strength confirmation. Today’s defining context: AI-infrastructure and software outperformance (MSFT +4.61%, DDOG +9.49%, NOW +7.29%) whilesemiconductor names lagged despite overall tech strength (SNDK -5.58%, KLAC -2.66%). Regime context — 63.6% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 63.5% prior, regime held at Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 319 bulls vs. 65 bears. The 5-day trend turned up 3 of 5 days, signaling early recovery in market leadership.
SIP: ASML AVGO SNAP MSFT
- What’s working today: breakout and momentum strategies fired — 2LYNCH: 27, D9M: 42, Reversal: 31
- Leading sectors: Technology (+2.5), Consumer Discretionary (+0.6), Communication Services (+0.66); leading themes: AI Infrastructure (+1.62), SaaS (+2.1), Digital Ads (+1.1)
- Key event: Snap raised Q1 EBITDA outlook to $233M (vs prior $170–190M) and guided Q1 revenue to $1.529B (+12% YoY), triggering +7.7% rally
- Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious (63.5%), closing is Cautious (63.6%) — held; sentiment breadth improved (bulls +50 vs prior, bears -34) but breadth concentration remains narrow
- DEP watchlist: HOOD ($87.39), INO ($17.32), CRWG ($5.39), NKE ($44.20), OGN ($9.24)
- SIPS: ASML, AVGO, SNAP — momentum and guidance-driven setups
Market Breadth — 2026-04-15
| Sentiment 4% | Very Bullish | 40SMA | Bullish |
| Bull 4% | 319 | Bear 4% | 65 |
| % > 20 SMA | 86% | % > 40 SMA | 63.64% |
| Bull 9M | 54 | Bear 9M | 5 |