Situation Awareness: Cautious. The session opened with massive relief following the U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement, with broad-based rallies across equities and sharp oil pullbacks. SPY, QQQ, and IWM each rallied +2.3% to +3.0% with breadth improving meaningfully as 59% of stocks traded above their 20-day SMA (up from 104% prior day’s extreme short-covering bias), and 51.79% above the 40-day SMA (vs 37.77% prior). Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and risk-controlled. Today’s defining context: Geopolitical de-escalation drove a risk-on relief rally, led by industrials (+3.8%), consumer discretionary (+2.8%), and tech (+2.8%). The 5-day trend turned up 3 of 5 days, signaling early recovery in leadership breadth. Regime context — 51.79% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 37.77% prior day, regime shifted from Cautious-Bearish to Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 622 bulls vs 106 bears. The 5-day trend turned up 3 of 5 days, signaling early recovery in leadership breadth.
SIP: AMAT AMZN META CCL
- What’s working today: 2LYNCH: 119, D9M: 69, Reversal: 79 signals fired — continued bullish momentum, especially in high-beta and AI-adjacent names
- Leading sectors: Industrials (+3.55% ATR), Technology (+3.29%), Consumer Discretionary (+3.74% ATR); leading themes: Airlines, Cruise Lines, AI Hardware/Infrastructure
- Key event: U.S. and Iran agree to two-week ceasefire; WTI crude fell $18.45 (-16.4%) to $94.40, sparking broad risk-on move
- Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious-Bearish (37.8%), closing is Cautious (51.8%) — shifted due to sharp improvement in breadth (40 SMA % rose +14.0pp) and 2-day oil pullback
- DEP watchlist: AMAT, AMZN, META, COR, CCL
- SIPS: AMAT, AMZN, CCL
Market Breadth — 2026-04-08
| Sentiment 4% | Very Bullish | 40SMA | Bullish |
| Bull 4% | 622 | Bear 4% | 106 |
| % > 20 SMA | 59% | % > 40 SMA | 51.79% |
| Bull 9M | 61 | Bear 9M | 18 |