Closing SA — 2026-04-01

Situation Awareness: Bearish. Markets extended yesterday’s relief rally into a broad, momentum-driven day — SPY gained 2.9%, QQQ +3.8%, IWM +3.4% — but breadth narrowed from 39% stocks above 20-SMA yesterday to 25% today, while only 29.1% closed above 40-SMA (vs. 27.7% prior), signaling early exhaustion despite positive catalysts. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive, watch for early strength and fail at key resistance. Today’s defining context: ceasefire optimism drove a relief rally anchored in mega-cap tech (META +6.67%, GOOGL +5.04%, NVDA +5.62%), energy weakness (-1.1% sector), and a modest $1.77 oil drop to $101.15 — though oil remains above $100 and Strait of Hormuz remains “not free and clear” per Trump. Regime context — 29.1% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs. 27.7% prior day, regime held at Bearish), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 188 bulls vs. 88 bears. The 5-day trend shows a consistent down sequence from March’s peak but reversed 3 of 5 days in early April, signaling early recovery attempt.

SIP: ASIX ETR FF HWKN NXTT AN VRSN STAK GNK EQIX IONZ XNET ACTG

• What’s working today: 2LYNCH: 13, D9M: 54, Reversal: 119 — continuation signals surged as mega-cap momentum reversed multi-week downtrend.
• Leading sectors: Technology (-0.54, +1.39% daily change), Industrials (-0.92, +1.13% daily change), Utilities (1.71, +0.62% daily change); leading themes: AI infrastructure (NVDA, ON), distribution (SNX), and utility stability.
• Key event — Iranian state media confirmed readiness to end war after EU call; Trump stated he’ll act when Strait of Hormuz is “open, free, and clear” — markets interpreted this as potential de-escalation window, but oil’s $101.15 close shows skepticism remains.
• Regime threading: morning SA called Bearish (27.7%), closing is Bearish (29.1%) — held at Bearish; modest improvement in breadth but still below 30% 40-SMA flagging caution.
• DEP watchlist: AA BTG CRML ETR FCX — D9M top performers with high risk-adjusted momentum and sector tailwinds (mining, utility, energy).
• SIPS: ASIX ETR HWKN — top Continuation (2LYNCH) signals with ATR%M >2.5, strong RVOL, and narrow zone entry.